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Harry News

    Prediction markets for Harry

    Harris wins 2028 election?

    Sep 23, 8:45 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM
    3.64%chance
    120185299

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    55740

    3094

    Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

    Nov 15, 1:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM
    3.4%chance
    4970419

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    49966

    4816

    OptionProbability

    Ron Weasley is a redhead

    Harry Potter is white

    At least one named character from the book has their race changed

    Snape is black

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

    A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

    McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

    Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

    Premieres in 2027

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

    Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

    Malfoy has white blonde hair

    Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

    JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

    Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

    Fred and George are twins irl

    Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

    The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

    Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

    There’s a scene set before Harry is born

    Peeves is a reoccurring character

    Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

    An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

    Hermione is white

    mandrake root on screen

    A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

    80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

    A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

    A house elf is shown on screen

    Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

    Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

    It ends on a cliff hanger

    The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

    It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

    At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

    Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

    Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

    Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

    An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

    It's woke

    The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

    The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

    Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

    Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

    90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

    At least one of the actors is transgender

    VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

    Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

    Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

    We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

    Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

    We get AGI before it premieres

    Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

    Premieres in 2026

    Features an explicitly transgender character

    Fred and George have the same actor

    JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

    Hermione is black

    Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

    Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

    Hermione is Indian

    Yudkowsky makes an appearance

    HPMOR is referenced

    One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

    99

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    89

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    87

    86

    86

    80

    80

    78

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    78

    75

    75

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    73

    70

    68

    65

    65

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    64

    63

    57

    55

    55

    55

    50

    50

    46

    41

    40

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    30

    29

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    26

    26

    22

    22

    22

    21

    18

    16

    13

    11

    11

    7

    7

    6

    5

    2

    2

    1

    1

    Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

    Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    3.55%chance
    255567

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5211

    192

    Will Kamala Harris run in the 2028 election primary?

    Jul 7, 1:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    33.34%chance
    284399

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1577

    405

    Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic primary polls at end of 2025?

    May 6, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    56.97%chance
    323086

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1151

    869

    Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle divorce/break up before 2030?

    Jan 24, 12:12 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    60.18%chance
    443033

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1195

    819

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1101

    908

    How much greater is Donald Trump's IQ than Kamala Harris's?

    Oct 26, 3:57 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM
    56.51%chance
    121342

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    2029

    1210

    Will J.K Rowling publish a new Harry Potter book ?

    Apr 22, 3:16 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
    25.76%chance
    12334

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1152

    916

    Will Sam Harris create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 10, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    20.52%chance
    12244

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1105

    956

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