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Harry News

    Prediction markets for Harry

    Harris wins 2028 election?

    Sep 23, 8:45 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM
    3.28%chance
    121187071

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    59500

    2960

    OptionProbability

    Ron Weasley is a redhead

    Harry Potter is white

    At least one named character from the book has their race changed

    Snape is black

    An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

    Fred and George are twins irl

    Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

    Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

    McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

    A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

    Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

    A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

    Premieres in 2027

    Malfoy has white blonde hair

    Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

    There’s a scene set before Harry is born

    JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

    The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

    Peeves is a reoccurring character

    It's woke

    Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

    A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

    Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

    mandrake root on screen

    Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

    80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

    Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

    Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

    Hermione is white

    Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

    A house elf is shown on screen

    Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

    Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

    It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

    Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

    An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

    At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

    The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

    Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

    Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

    Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

    It ends on a cliff hanger

    The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

    An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

    The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

    The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

    Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

    "Voldemort" has a silent "t"

    Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

    VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

    Dobby makes an appearance

    At least one of the actors is transgender

    Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

    Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

    90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Premieres in 2026

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

    We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

    Features an explicitly transgender character

    JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

    Zendaya is cast in the show

    Voldemort is a woman

    Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

    Hermione is black

    Hermione is Indian

    Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

    Awkwafina is cast in the show

    Keir Starmer is in it

    There will be seven CGI dwarves

    set in 2025

    set in the 2020s

    Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

    Gandalf is black

    Yudkowsky makes an appearance

    We get AGI before it premieres

    Hagrid is black

    Fred and George have the same actor

    HPMOR is referenced

    One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

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    Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

    Nov 15, 1:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM
    3.82%chance
    5277258

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    45790

    4972

    Will Kamala Harris attempt to run again for the 2028 election?

    Nov 6, 5:56 PMApr 21, 4:59 AM
    45.66%chance
    9116900

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1091

    917

    Kamala Harris leading 2028 Democratic primary polls at end of 2025?

    May 6, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    34.1%chance
    528270

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1390

    719

    Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?

    Sep 19, 8:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    4.37%chance
    256100

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4678

    214

    Will Kamala Harris run in the 2028 election primary?

    Jul 7, 1:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    45.04%chance
    344971

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1333

    561

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1150

    869

    How much greater is Donald Trump's IQ than Kamala Harris's?

    Oct 26, 3:57 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM
    53.02%chance
    121442

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    1908

    1310

    Will J.K Rowling publish a new Harry Potter book ?

    Apr 22, 3:16 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
    25.76%chance
    12334

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1152

    916

    Will Sam Harris create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 10, 4:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    20.52%chance
    12244

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1105

    956

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