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Prediction markets for Jennie
OptionVotes
1537
976
Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?
Dec 15, 5:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
13.67%chance
673922
OptionVotes
1798
841
OptionProbability
45
30
11
4
2
2
2
2
2
Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?
Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
37.81%chance
152751
OptionVotes
1156
793
Can @IsaacKing be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?
Oct 30, 11:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
94.47%chance
102221
OptionVotes
1181
927
Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035?
Jan 10, 5:54 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM
23.86%chance
151806
OptionVotes
1809
526
Who will succeed Jagmeet Singh as the next leader of Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP)?
Nov 3, 1:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
8720
OptionProbability
13
11
10
9
8
8
7
7
6
5
5
3
3
2
0
0
0
I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out? [Resolves to superintelligence]
Nov 27, 11:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
34.83%chance
12502
OptionVotes
1039
957
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
Jan 10, 6:18 PMJan 3, 10:00 AM
21.05%chance
11351
OptionVotes
1238
915
Were Barack Obama and Jennifer Aniston romantically involved sometime between 2017-2024?
Jan 29, 6:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.91%chance
11335
OptionVotes
230
43
Will Jenny Kaplan (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 21, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.32%chance
3121
OptionVotes
185
56
Who in the Forbes 30 Under 30 2025 list will be charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?
Dec 14, 6:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
119
OptionProbability
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45