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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
54.23%chance
18391291066
OptionVotes
4724
3983
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
7532370
OptionVotes
25533
3383
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.52%chance
3412373
OptionVotes
19679
5082
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM
33.86%chance
508848
OptionVotes
14496
6492
Will James Koppel, Barton Rhodes, yoyo,Amit Deshwar, Rochelle shen, Geffen avraham, sigfig, Jacob Cole LAN party b4 2030
Sep 21, 4:41 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM
10%chance
1200
OptionVotes
300
33
Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?
Sep 21, 8:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.12%chance
589
OptionVotes
121
71
Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026
Jun 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.96%chance
483
OptionVotes
149
67
Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?
Sep 21, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
17.72%chance
483
OptionVotes
170
82
Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?
Jan 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41%chance
351
OptionVotes
60
42
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionVotes
100
100
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