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Top stories

Famed Defense Lawyer Roy Black Dies at 80

Famed Defense Lawyer Roy Black Dies at 80

Authors

10

11 days ago

Prediction markets for Lea

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.8%chance

24021729741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9021

2682

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

56.31%chance

440954278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12844

6434

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17639

7122

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.09%chance

494196005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5011

1123

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

53%chance

216172852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

876

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

24.25%chance

73163495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111734

28057

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.29%chance

27106385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138784

35201

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.35%chance

3947145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118404

88423

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Jun 24, 9:42 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

48.78%chance

2311100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10337

9667

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32%chance

196935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14577

6860

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

192825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12162

8222

Will Lea Degen publish any podcasts in 2025-2026? [her old podcast stopped in 2021]

Mar 6, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Latest stories

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Jul 22, 2025
Jul 22, 2025
Obituary
Florida
Culture
Famed Defense Lawyer Roy Black Dies at 80
Authors
10
11 days ago

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