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Prediction markets for Lea
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.8%chance
24021729741
OptionVotes
9021
2682
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
56.31%chance
440954278
OptionVotes
12844
6434
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.25%chance
183266085
OptionVotes
17639
7122
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
85.09%chance
494196005
OptionVotes
5011
1123
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
50%chance
217172957
OptionVotes
1300
940
Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?
May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM
23.34%chance
73165995
OptionVotes
114234
27276
State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025
Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.29%chance
27106385
OptionVotes
138784
35201
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.35%chance
3947145
OptionVotes
118404
88423
OptionVotes
10337
9667
Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
32%chance
196935
OptionVotes
14577
6860
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.34%chance
192825
OptionVotes
12162
8222
Will Lea Degen publish any podcasts in 2025-2026? [her old podcast stopped in 2021]
Mar 6, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100