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Prediction markets for Leap
OptionProbability
83
77
67
65
49
44
27
By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?
Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.75%chance
443891
OptionVotes
2730
902
Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035?
Jan 10, 5:54 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM
23.15%chance
161872
OptionVotes
1878
526
OptionProbability
39
21
13
11
5
3
3
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
2328
810
OptionProbability
20
16
13
11
8
8
6
5
5
5
4
Will there be a Chiefs/49ers Super Bowl in the next leap year?
Mar 1, 5:46 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM
3.94%chance
5571
OptionVotes
729
91
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
Jan 10, 6:18 PMJan 3, 10:00 AM
21.05%chance
11351
OptionVotes
1238
915
OptionProbability
30
24
14
14
11
6
Will there be another positive leap second by end of 2035?
Jan 10, 5:53 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM
54.21%chance
8158
OptionVotes
208
126
Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?
Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
23.92%chance
3113
OptionVotes
117
45
OptionVotes
107
77
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