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Prediction markets for Leap
By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?
Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.67%chance
433889
OptionVotes
2845
900
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
52.77%chance
541909
OptionVotes
1141
1067
Will there be a negative leap second by end of 2035?
Jan 10, 5:54 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM
22.84%chance
161856
OptionVotes
1859
511
OptionProbability
35
24
24
15
2
1
Will there be a Chiefs/49ers Super Bowl in the next leap year?
Mar 1, 5:46 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM
3.94%chance
5571
OptionVotes
729
91
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
Jan 10, 6:18 PMJan 3, 10:00 AM
21.05%chance
11351
OptionVotes
1238
915
OptionProbability
84
50
45
36
20
14
Will there be another positive leap second by end of 2035?
Jan 10, 5:53 PMJan 1, 10:00 AM
54.21%chance
8158
OptionVotes
208
126
OptionProbability
48
29
6
6
6
5
OptionVotes
107
77
OptionProbability
58
50
50
34
Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?
Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.78%chance
120
OptionVotes
90
56
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