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Nathalie Rose Jones, 50, Arrested in D.C. for Social Media Threats to Assassinate President Trump, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro Confirms

Crime

Washington DC

Culture

Nathalie Rose Jones, 50, Arrested in D.C. for Social Media Threats to Assassinate President Trump, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro Confirms

7 months ago

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Nov 6, 5:48 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

1606996383

OptionProbability

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Approval < 35%

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

trump gets hospitalized

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

USA experiences a recession.

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump visits Africa

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

10% fewer government agencies

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Dow rises above 65,000

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump says a racial slur

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Joe Biden dies

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

New national park created

BTC falls below $38,000

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

War is declared against another nation

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Repeal obamacare

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

JD Vance elected President

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

Trump runs for a third term

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

Trump announces he is tired of winning

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump dies

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci is indicted

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

55 or more Republican senate seats

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Record level unemployment

54 or more Republican senate seats

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Trump is assassinated

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

A national ban on gender-affirming care

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

"covfefe" posted again

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump and Melania divorce

Ann Selzer arrested

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

100

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

May 1, 10:23 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

451199223

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff

Josh Shapiro

Mark Kelly

Kamala Harris

JB Pritzker

Andy Beshear

Ruben Gallego

Raphael Warnock

Gretchen Whitmer

There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

James Talarico

Chris Murphy

Colin Allred

Jared Polis

Tim Walz

Amy Klobuchar

Connor Duffy

[Invalid - Duplicate]

Yishan Wong

Adolf Hitler

Mark Cuban

Michelle Obama

Andrew Cuomo

John Fetterman

Stephen A. Smith

Ritchie Torres

Elissa Slotkin

Rahm Emanuel

Jill Biden

Wes Moore

Invalid

Jasmine Crockett

Cory Booker

Invalid

Chris Van Hollen

Hakeem Jeffries

Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)

Ro Khanna

Zohran Mamdani

Jacob Frey

Noam Chomsky

Mikie Sherrill

Taylor Swift

Liz Cheney

Kirsten Gillibrand

Ezra Klein

Andrew Yang

Invalid

Josh Green

Bernie Sanders

John Stewart

Jamie Dimon

George Washington

Paris Hilton

Donald Trump

Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione

George Clooney

Who will the Trump administration go after?

Nov 13, 7:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

5522391

OptionProbability

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

Dr. Fauci

LGBTQ+ / Transgender service members

January 6th Committee

Jack Smith

Blinken

Jimmy Kimmel

Alejandro Mayorkas

Fluoride

The Bidens

Miles Taylor

Zohran Mamdani

Jerome Powell

Bruce Springsteen

Merrick Garland

Elon Musk

Michael Cohen

Christopher Steele

Texas Democrats (as a group)

VAWA self-petitioners

Liz Cheney

Furries

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Vindman

FDIC

Rev. Budde/ Episcopal Church

Susie Wiles

Beyonce

Brad Raffensperger

Mike Pence

Rosie O'Donnell

Black Nationals

E. Jean Carroll

Jeff Bezos

Taylor Swift

Alec Baldwin

Kevin McCarthy

Karoline Leavitt

100

🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 13, 5:48 PMAug 6, 3:59 AM

11619288

OptionProbability

Julia Galef

Scott Alexander

Zvi Mowshowitz

Paul Christiano

Peter Singer

Randall Munroe

Josh Shapiro

Dwarkesh Patel

Jon Stewart

@SemioticRivalry

Gretchen Whitmer

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Michelle Obama

Sam Wendover

Spencer Greenberg

Tammy Duckworth

Emmanuel Macron

Andrew Yang

Andy Beshear

Jared Polis

Manifold Joshua

J. B. Pritzker

Satya Nadella

Aella

Katie Porter

Andrew Wiles

Gavin Newsom

@Mira

Garry Kasparov

MrBeast

William Mc Askill

Vermin Supreme

Eric Schmidt

Magnus Carlsen

Bill Gates

Raphael Warnock

Mark Cuban

Justin Trudeau

Bernie Sanders

Gordon Ramsay

@strutheo

Bryan Caplan

Ursula von der Leyen

Bill Maher

Linus Torvalds

Manifold James

Sam Altman

Michael Bloomberg

Al Gore

Bryan Cranston

Kathy Hochul

Cory Booker

Blake Huber

Taylor Swift

Mitt Romney

A randomly selected active Manifold user

Manifold Austin

Jose Luis Ricon

Warren Buffett

Keanu Reeves

Ray William Johnson

Cory Doctorow

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LeBron James

Kamala Harris

Zach Robinson

Nikil Saval

Ding Liren

@ZacParker

SCP-999

Stannis Baratheon

Alexandr Wang

Cao Cao

Liu Bei

Tim Cook

Jeff Bezos

Hillary Clinton

Destiny

Guillaume Verdon

Emma Watson

Oprah

Rick Astley

Peter Thiel

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jimmy Carter

Anatoly Karpov

Rishi Sunak

Anthony Fantano

Javier Milei

Nikki Haley

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Sundar Pichai

Brian Tomasik

Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Mark Zuckerberg

Prince Harry

Jeb "Please Clap" Bush

Hunter Biden

Liz Cheney

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elon Musk

Yann Lecun

A randomly selected banned Manifold user

Joe Rogan

Chuck Norris

Tucker Carlson

Ivanka Trump

Jordan Peterson

Ben Shapiro

Sam Bankman-Fried

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?

Mar 25, 2:30 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM

12516310

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Marco Rubio

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Ron DeSantis

Ted Cruz

Tucker Carlson

Pete Hegseth

Josh Hawley

Brian Kemp

Doug Burgum

Will Hurd

Donald Trump Jr.

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tom Cotton

Rick Scott

Todd Young

Joni Ernst

Markwayne Mullin

Chris Sununu

Elise Stefanik

Vivek Ramaswamy

Franciz Suarez

Mike Johnson

Greg Abbott

Byron Donalds

Chris Christie

Rand Paul

Kristi Noem

Mike Lee

Kim Reynolds

Dan Crenshaw

Katie Britt

Tim Scott

Mike Pence

Donald Trump

Tulsi Gabbard

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Mike Pompeo

Liz Cheney

Matt Gaetz

Who will be the first woman president of the United States?

Jan 26, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6513270

OptionProbability

Other/none of the above

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Tulsi Gabbard

Stacey Abrams

Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Liz Cheney

Joni Ernst

Hillary Clinton

Sarah Palin

Condoleezza Rice

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marianne Williamson

Elizabeth Warren

Who will run for U.S. president before 2060 [Independent Resolution] [Free Response]

Dec 20, 12:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

396199

OptionProbability

Vivek Ramaswamy

Jimmy Carter

Gavin Newsom

Gretchen Whitmer

JD Vance

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Stephen A. Smith

David Hogg

Spencer Cox

Jeff Jackson

Liz Cheney

Tucker Carlson

Tim Ferriss

Taylor Swift

Michelle Obama

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Tim Cook

Chuck Norris

100

Who will be the 48th President of the USA?

Oct 10, 6:57 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

765501

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Other

Pete Buttigieg

Mark Kelly

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kari Lake

Mike Johnson

Raphael Warnock

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Ron de Santis

Rand Paul

Kristi Noem

Amy Klobuchar

Nikki Haley

Liz Cheney

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

JB Pritzker

Gretchen Whitmer

Hakeem Jeffries

Tammy Duckworth

Peter Thiel

Cory Booker

Andy Beshear

Hunter Biden

Spencer Cox

Erika Kirk

Elizabeth Warren

Nobody, AGI kills everyone

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Mike Pompeo

Beto O'Rourke

Tom Cotton

Ben Sasse

Kanye West

Pete Davidson

Joe Rogan

Ivanka Trump

Bernie Sanders

Ted Cruz

Elon Musk

Destiny

Jared Polis

Stacey Abrams

Mitt Romney

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Tim Walz

Julian Castro

Tucker Carlson

Who else will be indicted by the federal government before Trump leaves office? [ADD ANSWERS]

Sep 26, 6:49 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

102502

OptionProbability

John Bolton

Letitia James

Fani Willis

Any sitting Democratic elected official

Lisa Cook

Adam Schiff

Jack Smith

Anyone additional for their role in the Jeffrey Epstein case

Tim Walz

Jerome Powell

George Soros / anyone in Open Societies Foundation leadership

Anyone pardoned by Joe Biden

Liz Cheney

Hunter Biden

Anyone in the Obama family

100

Who will these anti trump republicans endorse/vote for in 2028? DEM=YES GOP=NO

Dec 21, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6790

OptionProbability

Joe Scarborough

Liz Cheney

John Bolton

James Comey

Mitt Romney

Susan Collins

Chris Christie

Jeb Bush

Lisa Murkowski

Mike Pence

Who will be US President after Joe Biden's successor?

Jan 1, 9:40 PMJan 1, 12:12 PM

22663

OptionProbability

Rand Paul

Other

J.D. Vance

Gretchen Whitmer

Pete Buttigieg

Ron DeSantis

Raphael Warnock

Josh Shapiro

Gavin Newsome

Marco Rubio

Mark Kelly

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Nobody

Joe Biden

Cory Booker

Andrew Yang

Chris Sununu

Larry Hogan

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Tim Scott

Greg Abbott

Mike Pence

Ted Cruz

Kristi Noem

Josh Hawley

Stacey Abrams

Ayanna Pressley

Jared Polis

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Elizabeth Warren

Amy Klobuchar

Antony Blinken

Kirsten Gillibrand

Michael Bennet

Deval Patrick

Beto O'Rourke

Eric Adams

Bill de Blasio

Steve Bullock

Julián Castro

Bernie Sanders

Liz Cheney

Michelle Obama

Andy Beshear

Roy Cooper

Ro Khanna

Gina Raimondo

Mitt Romney

Tom Cotton

Chris Christie

Tammy Duckworth

Will Liz Cheney (U.S. attorney and politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 30, 3:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.11%chance

9366

OptionVotes

YES

400

379

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Crime
Washington DC
Culture
Nathalie Rose Jones, 50, Arrested in D.C. for Social Media Threats to Assassinate President Trump, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro Confirms
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