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Former Moderate Republican Nancy Mace Launches South Carolina Governor Campaign, Criticizes Hillary Clinton, Shifts on Trans Rights

5 days ago

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Nov 6, 5:48 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

1430877618

OptionProbability

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Joe Biden dies

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

A national ban on gender-affirming care

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

BTC falls below $38,000

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Trump and Obama shake hands

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

100

Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17172309

OptionProbability

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

Universities

Paper straws

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

Alejandro Mayorkas

Jack Smith

Solar Energy

Zohran Mamdani

Leakers

National Institutes of Health

Bruce Springsteen

The New York Times (NYT)

Panama

Alexander Vindman

Stephen Colbert

Joe Biden

The Atlantic

Greenland

Barack Obama

Beyoncé

Ann Selzer

the National Archives

Rosie O'Donnell

Michael Cohen

Fluoride

Nancy Pelosi

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Denmark

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

John Kelly

Public Libraries

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Miles Taylor

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Bill Barr

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Seth Myers

Taylor Swift

Vaccine mandates

Emmanuel Macron

Jimmy Kimmel

Christopher Steele

Wikipedia

Ken Klippenstein

TIME magazine

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Any Manifold User

Mike Pence

Jeff Bezos

Mariann Edgar Budde

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

SSRIs

WIRED Magazine

Liz Cheney

E. Jean Carroll

Tucker Carlson

Brad Raffensperger

BlueSky

American sign language signers or interpreters

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Pete Hegseth

Black Nationals

Alec Baldwin

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

Not Elected

100

Who will the Trump administration go after?

Nov 13, 7:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

4821738

OptionProbability

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

Dr. Fauci

LGBTQ+ / Transgender service members

January 6th Committee

Jack Smith

Blinken

Alejandro Mayorkas

The Bidens

Miles Taylor

Fluoride

Zohran Mamdani

Bruce Springsteen

Jerome Powell

Merrick Garland

Elon Musk

Michael Cohen

Christopher Steele

Furries

Texas Democrats (as a group)

Liz Cheney

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Vindman

FDIC

Rev. Budde/ Episcopal Church

Susie Wiles

Beyonce

Jimmy Kimmel

Brad Raffensperger

Mike Pence

Rosie O'Donnell

Black Nationals

E. Jean Carroll

Jeff Bezos

Taylor Swift

Alec Baldwin

Kevin McCarthy

Karoline Leavitt

100

🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 13, 5:48 PMSep 23, 3:59 AM

11318786

OptionProbability

Julia Galef

Scott Alexander

Zvi Mowshowitz

Paul Christiano

Randall Munroe

Josh Shapiro

Jon Stewart

Peter Singer

@SemioticRivalry

Dwarkesh Patel

Gretchen Whitmer

Michelle Obama

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Sam Wendover

Spencer Greenberg

Tammy Duckworth

Kamala Harris

Emmanuel Macron

Andrew Yang

Jared Polis

Manifold Joshua

J. B. Pritzker

Satya Nadella

Aella

Katie Porter

Andrew Wiles

Andy Beshear

MrBeast

Gavin Newsom

@Mira

Garry Kasparov

William Mc Askill

Vermin Supreme

Eric Schmidt

Magnus Carlsen

Bill Gates

Raphael Warnock

Mark Cuban

Justin Trudeau

Bernie Sanders

Gordon Ramsay

@strutheo

Bryan Caplan

Ursula von der Leyen

Bill Maher

Manifold James

Sam Altman

Michael Bloomberg

Al Gore

Bryan Cranston

Kathy Hochul

Cory Booker

Blake Huber

Taylor Swift

Mitt Romney

A randomly selected active Manifold user

Manifold Austin

Jose Luis Ricon

Linus Torvalds

Warren Buffett

Keanu Reeves

Ray William Johnson

Cory Doctorow

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LeBron James

Zach Robinson

Nikil Saval

Ding Liren

@ZacParker

SCP-999

Stannis Baratheon

Alexandr Wang

Tim Cook

Jeff Bezos

Hillary Clinton

Chuck Norris

Liu Bei

Destiny

Cao Cao

Guillaume Verdon

Emma Watson

Oprah

Peter Thiel

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jimmy Carter

Anatoly Karpov

Rishi Sunak

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Anthony Fantano

Javier Milei

Nikki Haley

Sundar Pichai

Brian Tomasik

Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Mark Zuckerberg

Prince Harry

Jeb "Please Clap" Bush

Liz Cheney

Elon Musk

Yann Lecun

A randomly selected banned Manifold user

Rick Astley

Joe Rogan

Vivek Ramaswamy

Tucker Carlson

Ivanka Trump

Jordan Peterson

Ben Shapiro

Sam Bankman-Fried

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Hunter Biden

Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?

Mar 25, 2:30 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM

11913284

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Glenn Youngkin

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elise Stefanik

Doug Burgum

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Greg Abbott

Brian Kemp

Josh Hawley

Katie Britt

Chris Christie

Kristi Noem

Mike Johnson

Mike Pompeo

Tom Cotton

Todd Young

Chris Sununu

Kim Reynolds

Dan Crenshaw

Tim Scott

Will Hurd

Franciz Suarez

Ted Cruz

Rick Scott

Joni Ernst

Markwayne Mullin

Byron Donalds

Donald Trump Jr.

Tulsi Gabbard

Rand Paul

Mike Lee

Mike Pence

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Donald Trump

Liz Cheney

Matt Gaetz

Who will be the first woman president of the United States?

Jan 26, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6412705

OptionProbability

Other/none of the above

Kamala Harris

Tulsi Gabbard

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gretchen Whitmer

Stacey Abrams

Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Liz Cheney

Hillary Clinton

Sarah Palin

Condoleezza Rice

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marianne Williamson

Elizabeth Warren

Joni Ernst

Liz Cheney, Anthony Fauci, or AOC arrested before 2026

Feb 5, 4:08 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

7.87%chance

355905

OptionVotes

YES

3422

292

Who will run for U.S. president before 2060 [Independent Resolution] [Free Response]

Dec 20, 12:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

385518

OptionProbability

Vivek Ramaswamy

Gavin Newsom

Gretchen Whitmer

JD Vance

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Stephen A. Smith

David Hogg

Jeff Jackson

Liz Cheney

Tucker Carlson

Tim Ferriss

Michelle Obama

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Taylor Swift

Chuck Norris

Tim Cook

Jimmy Carter

100

Who will be the democratic nominee for president in 2028

Nov 18, 3:40 AMSep 2, 3:59 AM

243101

OptionProbability

Other

Gavin Newsom

AOC

Josh Shapiro

Pete Butigieg

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Andy Beshear

Cory Booker

Jb Pritzker

Darkhorse Celeb (Ex Lebron, Taylor Swift, Oprah)

Tim Walz

Ruben Gallego

Michelle Obama

Joe Manchin

Mark Cuban

Amy Klobuchar

Marianne Willamson

Andrew Yang

Bernie Sanders

Michael Bloomberg

Elizabeth Warren

Mark Cuban

Jon Stewart

Other

Liz Cheney

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Noam Chomsky

Donald Trump Jr

Who will be the 48th President of the USA?

Oct 10, 6:57 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

451668

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Cory Booker

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Gretchen Whitmer

Ron de Santis

Raphael Warnock

JB Pritzker

Hakeem Jeffries

Jared Polis

Tim Walz

Kamala Harris

Amy Klobuchar

Nikki Haley

Donald Trump Jr

Elon Musk

Donald Trump

Elizabeth Warren

Rand Paul

Kristi Noem

Nobody, AGI kills everyone

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Mike Pompeo

Liz Cheney

Beto O'Rourke

Tom Cotton

Ben Sasse

Kanye West

Pete Davidson

Joe Rogan

Ivanka Trump

Bernie Sanders

Ted Cruz

Kari Lake

Tammy Duckworth

Destiny

Stacey Abrams

Peter Thiel

Mitt Romney

Joe Biden

Julian Castro

Tucker Carlson

Who will be US President after Joe Biden's successor?

Jan 1, 9:40 PMJan 1, 12:12 PM

19657

OptionProbability

Other

J.D. Vance

Marco Rubio

Pete Buttigieg

Amy Klobuchar

Mark Kelly

Raphael Warnock

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Gavin Newsome

Nobody

Joe Biden

Cory Booker

Andrew Yang

Chris Sununu

Larry Hogan

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Tim Scott

Greg Abbott

Mike Pence

Ted Cruz

Kristi Noem

Josh Hawley

Stacey Abrams

Ayanna Pressley

Jared Polis

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Elizabeth Warren

Antony Blinken

Kirsten Gillibrand

Michael Bennet

Deval Patrick

Beto O'Rourke

Eric Adams

Bill de Blasio

Steve Bullock

Julián Castro

Bernie Sanders

Liz Cheney

Michelle Obama

Andy Beshear

Roy Cooper

Ro Khanna

Gina Raimondo

Mitt Romney

Tom Cotton

Rand Paul

Chris Christie

Tammy Duckworth

Will Liz Cheney (U.S. attorney and politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 30, 3:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.11%chance

9366

OptionVotes

YES

400

379

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Aug 4, 2025
Aug 4, 2025
Politics
Former Moderate Republican Nancy Mace Launches South Carolina Governor Campaign, Criticizes Hillary Clinton, Shifts on Trans Rights
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5 days ago

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