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Prediction markets for Lowe
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
81.94%chance
391351512
OptionVotes
3411
823
How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, Low Resolution
May 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
201114340
OptionProbability
73
17
7
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1275
784
High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2026? (add answers)
Jan 16, 9:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
152117
OptionProbability
90
90
89
88
88
61
60
60
59
56
53
44
41
38
35
34
31
OptionVotes
1065
954
Will "PSA: Predictions markets often have very low ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 18, 12:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
8.91%chance
3550
OptionVotes
1550
931
What are some low-effort tips for living mentally and physically healthier, and longer? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 5:42 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
9246
OptionProbability
47
18
12
6
6
6
3
3
Will "The Case for Low-Competence ASI Failure Scenarios" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 21, 7:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
30.9%chance
2152
OptionVotes
1152
419
Will USDA/FDA have a labeling program for certifying food with low microplastic load by 2030
Aug 24, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.91%chance
381
OptionVotes
110
91
OptionProbability
359
166
low-sugar (including pre-cultivated) version of blueberries/raspberries/strawberries be found in a supermarket by 2029
May 17, 8:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.75%chance
220
OptionVotes
110
91
OptionVotes
105
95
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