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Luis Suárez News

    Prediction markets for Luis Suárez

    Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

    Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    12862925259

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Elon Musk

    Bill Gates

    Jeff Bezos

    Mr. Beast

    Barack Obama

    Donald Trump

    Gwern Branwen

    Satoshi Nakomoto

    Robert Caro

    Kamala Harris

    Jensen Huang

    Sarah Paine

    Sam Altman

    Narendra Modi

    JD Vance

    roon

    Geoffrey Hinton

    The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

    Terence Tao

    Ilya Sutskever

    No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

    Tim Cook

    Satya Nadella

    Justin Trudeau

    Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

    Xi Jinping

    Dalai Lama

    Buffett

    Taylor Swift

    Joe Biden

    Lebron James

    GPT-5

    Bill Clinton

    A basketball player

    Vladimir Putin

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Jesus Christ

    Rona Wang

    Jose Luis ricon

    Kettner Griswold

    James Koppel

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Nancy Pelosi

    Rishi Sunak

    Keir Starmer

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Jimmy Carter

    George W Bush

    Al Gore

    Michael Jackson

    your mom

    Mitt Romney

    one or both of his parents

    A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

    Connor Duffy

    MBS

    pope Francis

    Scott Alexander

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    RFK Jr

    Sydney Sweeney

    growing_daniel

    greg16676935420

    Deadpool

    Shaq

    Oprah Winfrey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Sundar Pichai

    Scarlett Johansson

    Paul McCartney

    [duplicate]

    Neel Nanda

    King Charles

    Kim Jong Un

    Gavin Newsom

    Royal Palace

    [cancelled option]

    Daniel Yergin

    Peter Singer

    Gabe Newell

    Neil Gorsuch

    Stephen Breyer

    Dmitry Medvedev

    JK Rowling

    Shrek

    Sam Hyde

    [invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

    Peter Thiel

    Marques Brownlee

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ben Shindel

    Javier Milei

    Dylan Patel

    Joe Rogan

    Marc Andreessen

    Mike Tyson

    Jake Paul

    Matt Gaetz

    16

    13

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    11

    7

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    Who will be the next pope after Leo XIV?

    May 6, 3:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    13981287

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Pierbattista Pizzaballa

    Luis Antonio Tagle

    Mykola Bychok

    Lazarus You Heung-sik

    Pietro Parolin

    José Tolentino de Mendonça

    Robert Prevost

    Donald Trump

    No one

    Giorgio Marengo

    Francis Leo

    Paulo Cezar Costa

    Américo Aguiar

    François-Xavier Bustillo

    Joe Biden

    82

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Julia Galef

    Scott Alexander

    Zvi Mowshowitz

    Paul Christiano

    Peter Singer

    Randall Munroe

    Josh Shapiro

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Jon Stewart

    @SemioticRivalry

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Michelle Obama

    Sam Wendover

    Spencer Greenberg

    Tammy Duckworth

    Emmanuel Macron

    Andrew Yang

    Andy Beshear

    Jared Polis

    Manifold Joshua

    J. B. Pritzker

    Satya Nadella

    Aella

    Katie Porter

    Andrew Wiles

    MrBeast

    Gavin Newsom

    @Mira

    Garry Kasparov

    William Mc Askill

    Vermin Supreme

    Eric Schmidt

    Magnus Carlsen

    Bill Gates

    Raphael Warnock

    Mark Cuban

    Justin Trudeau

    Bernie Sanders

    Gordon Ramsay

    @strutheo

    Bryan Caplan

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Bill Maher

    Linus Torvalds

    Manifold James

    Sam Altman

    Michael Bloomberg

    Al Gore

    Bryan Cranston

    Kathy Hochul

    Cory Booker

    Blake Huber

    Taylor Swift

    Mitt Romney

    A randomly selected active Manifold user

    Manifold Austin

    Jose Luis Ricon

    Warren Buffett

    Keanu Reeves

    Ray William Johnson

    Cory Doctorow

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    LeBron James

    Zach Robinson

    Nikil Saval

    Ding Liren

    @ZacParker

    SCP-999

    Stannis Baratheon

    Alexandr Wang

    Cao Cao

    Liu Bei

    Kamala Harris

    Tim Cook

    Jeff Bezos

    Hillary Clinton

    Destiny

    Guillaume Verdon

    Emma Watson

    Oprah

    Rick Astley

    Peter Thiel

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Jimmy Carter

    Anatoly Karpov

    Rishi Sunak

    Anthony Fantano

    Nikki Haley

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

    Sundar Pichai

    Javier Milei

    Brian Tomasik

    Lionel Messi

    Cristiano Ronaldo

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Prince Harry

    Jeb "Please Clap" Bush

    Hunter Biden

    Liz Cheney

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Elon Musk

    Yann Lecun

    A randomly selected banned Manifold user

    Joe Rogan

    Chuck Norris

    Tucker Carlson

    Ivanka Trump

    Jordan Peterson

    Ben Shapiro

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

    98

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    25

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    20

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    9

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    6

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    6

    Who will win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?

    Nov 9, 4:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    196409

    OptionProbability

    Alexi Giannoulias

    Brandon Johnson

    Susana Mendoza

    Maria Pappas

    Mike Quigley

    George Cardenas

    Liam Stanton

    Joe Holberg

    Bill Quinlan

    Other

    Paul Vallas

    Bill Conway

    Brendan Reilly

    Kam Buckner

    Rahm Emanuel

    Janice Jackson

    Brian Hopkins

    Silvana Tabares

    Gil Villegas

    Anna Valencia

    Joe Ferguson

    Luis Gutiérrez

    Lisa Madigan

    John Kelly

    Andre Vasquez

    Chuy Garcia

    Willie Wilson

    Lori Lightfoot

    Sophia King

    Ja'Mal Green

    Roderick Sawyer

    Toni Preckwinkle

    Bill Daley

    35

    10

    10

    5

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    3

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    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

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    OptionProbability

    “Moromeții”, de Marin Preda

    “Engina Otiliei”, de George Călinescu

    “Ion”, de Liviu Rebreanu

    “O scrisoare pierdută”, de Ion Luca Caragiale

    “Moara cu noroc”, de Ioan Slavici

    “Alexandru Lăpușneanul”, de Costache Negruzzi

    “Testament”, de Tudor Arghezi

    “Baltagul”, de Mihail Sadoveanu

    “Plumb”, de George Bacovia

    “Eu nu strivesc corola de minuni a lumii”, de Lucian Blaga

    “Riga Crypto și Lapona Enigel”, de Ion Barbu

    “Povestea lui Harap-Alb”, de Ion Creangă

    “Iona”, de Marin Sorescu

    “Luceafărul”, de Mihai Eminescu

    “Ultima noapye de dragoste, întâia noapte de război”, de Camil Petrescu

    “Leoiacă tânără, iubirea”, de Nichita Stănescu

    “Aci sosi pe vremuri”, de Ion Pillat

    98

    95

    93

    86

    69

    65

    63

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    42

    42

    33

    31

    28

    OptionProbability

    Enzo Maresca

    Vincent Kompany

    Luis Enrique

    Other

    98

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    NO SOLO NO-HITTER IN 2026

    Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals)

    Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers)

    Other

    Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Emerson Hanconck (Seattle Mariners)

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LA Dodgers)

    Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees)

    Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)

    Cole Ragans (Kansas City Royals)

    Max Fried (New York Yankees)

    Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants)

    Reid Detmers (Los Angeles Angels)

    Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers)

    Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)

    Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox)

    Corbin Burnes (Arizona Diamondbacks)

    Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)

    George Kirby (Seattle Mariners)

    Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners)

    Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays)

    Nolan McLean (New York Mets)

    Bubba Chandler (Pittsburgh Pirates)

    Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees)

    Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians)

    Hunter Brown (Houston Astros)

    Roki Sasaki (Los Angeles Dodgers)

    Carlos Rodón (New York Yankees)

    Framber Valdez (Houston Astros)

    Luis Castillo (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)

    15

    8

    8

    8

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    3

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    OptionProbability

    Other

    Luis Fonsi

    BLACKPINK

    Discord

    Wiz Khalifa

    Psy

    Ed Sheeran

    Mark Ronson

    51

    20

    18

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Who will win Mexico's 2030 presidential election?

    Mar 30, 5:57 AMJul 3, 11:59 PM
    1525

    OptionProbability

    Omar García Harfuch

    Samuel García

    Marcelo Ebrard

    Ricardo Salinas Pliego

    Ricardo Anaya

    Gerardo Fernández Noroña

    Clara Brugada

    Lilly Téllez

    Alejandro "Alito" Moreno

    Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

    Manolo Jiménez

    Jorge Álvarez Máynez

    Andrés Manuel López Beltrán

    Alessandra Rojo de la Vega

    Enrique de la Madrid

    Mauricio Kuri

    Other

    Ildefonso Guajardo

    Jorge Romero Herrera

    María Eugenia Campos Galván

    Damián Zepeda

    13

    8

    7

    7

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    Who is manifold's funniest user?

    Jan 12, 10:53 PMDec 31, 10:52 PM
    5103

    OptionProbability

    Jose Luis Ricon

    ramen

    Other

    chris (strutheo)

    AustinChen

    43

    17

    16

    12

    12

    OptionProbability

    Tatiana Clouthier

    Waldo Fernandez Gonzalez

    Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

    Mariana Rodríguez Cantú

    Fermando Margain Sada

    Adrian de la Garza Santos

    Clara Luz Flores

    Other

    Cesar Garza Villarreal

    Carlos de la Fuente Flores

    Daniel Carrillo Martínez

    Andrés Mijes Llovera

    Héctor García García

    Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal

    15

    13

    9

    9

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

    Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

    Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

    Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

    Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

    Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

    Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

    Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

    Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

    Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

    Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

    50

    50

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    50

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