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Who will do an apparent Nazi salute during Trump's second term? (add answers)
Jan 21, 4:40 PMJan 31, 4:59 AM
19572869
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
38
22
21
17
16
16
16
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?
Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2545514
OptionProbability
31
28
23
8
3
3
1
1
1
1
What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?
Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM
8917428
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
86
84
62
58
53
48
35
34
29
29
27
27
27
24
22
22
22
21
16
10
4
Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?
Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
414895
OptionProbability
99
93
92
92
91
91
90
87
84
82
82
78
60
59
59
54
50
45
31
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
99
99
64
45
38
30
25
23
21
21
21
21
21
19
19
19
18
18
17
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
11
11
11
7
Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)
Jun 19, 3:31 PMJun 19, 11:59 PM
15%chance
163326
OptionVotes
7778
5347
OptionProbability
53
21
16
9
Will Trump significantly cut taxes for people making under 150k a year?
Mar 16, 4:18 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
13.52%chance
11265
OptionVotes
253
40
OptionVotes
130
81
Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?
Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.34%chance
635
OptionVotes
122
82
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