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Marcos News

    Prediction markets for Marcos

    Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Presidential election?

    May 8, 12:06 PMDec 30, 6:59 AM
    9.41%chance
    3616064

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    969

    692

    Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?

    May 10, 9:44 PMMay 10, 9:43 PM
    25.28%chance
    222839

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1719

    582

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1322

    796

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Mike Pompeo

    Rex Tillerson

    Pete Buttigieg

    Nate Morris

    Ivanka Trumo

    87

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029

    Feb 1, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    0.63%chance
    141368

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1307

    75

    Will Marco Rubio be the United States Secretary of State on 12/31/2026?

    Mar 10, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    75.7%chance
    271177

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1177

    1057

    Will Marco Rubio run for President?

    Feb 8, 8:39 PMNov 4, 10:59 PM
    55.21%chance
    12412

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    111

    90

    The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency

    Nov 15, 7:46 PMJun 29, 5:36 PM
    1100

    OptionProbability

    Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

    Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

    Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

    Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

    Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

    Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

    Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

    Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

    Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

    Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

    Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

    Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

    Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

    Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

    Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

    Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

    Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

    Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

    Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

    Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

    Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

    Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

    Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

    Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

    Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

    Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

    Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

    Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

    Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1016

    986

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    113

    90

    Will Marco Rubio serve as Secretary of State until Jan 20th 2029?

    Aug 12, 4:29 PMJan 20, 12:00 PM
    44.72%chance
    235

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    135

    55

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