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Marcos News

    Prediction markets for Marcos

    Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Presidential election?

    May 8, 12:06 PMDec 30, 6:59 AM
    14%chance
    299645

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1000

    455

    Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?

    May 10, 9:44 PMMay 10, 9:43 PM
    17.5%chance
    192569

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2171

    461

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Mike Pompeo

    Pete Buttigieg

    Rex Tillerson

    Nate Morris

    Ivanka Trumo

    85

    4

    4

    3

    3

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1030

    965

    Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029

    Feb 1, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    0.56%chance
    131367

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1475

    74

    MARCO RUBIO WILL WIN 2028 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY?

    Mar 23, 11:32 AMAug 1, 11:59 PM
    28.44%chance
    21720

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    159

    63

    Will Marco Rubio be the United States Secretary of State on 12/31/2026?

    Mar 10, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    86.24%chance
    22683

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    250

    40

    Will Marco Rubio visit Greenland before 2027?

    Jan 11, 4:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    64.54%chance
    19416

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    135

    74

    Will Marco Rubio run for President?

    Feb 8, 8:39 PMNov 4, 10:59 PM
    34.78%chance
    10374

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    137

    73

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    186

    138

    Marco Rubio visiting Taiwan before the end of 2028?

    Nov 14, 8:29 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    45.27%chance
    693

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    110

    91

    The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency

    Nov 15, 7:46 PMJun 29, 5:36 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

    Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

    Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

    Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

    Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

    Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

    Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

    Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

    Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

    Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

    Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

    Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

    Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

    Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

    Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

    Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

    Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

    Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

    Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

    Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

    Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

    Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

    Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

    Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

    Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

    Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

    Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

    Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

    Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.

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