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Top stories

Diamondbacks Rally Around Marte After Unapproved Absence Sparks Backlash

Diamondbacks Rally Around Marte After Unapproved Absence Sparks Backlash

Authors

8

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Marte

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3139

336

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

9019108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

1690

Will the US experience martial law before 2026?

May 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.97%chance

5614633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5800

187

Will George R. R. Martin's next "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?

Nov 10, 9:11 PMApr 29, 10:09 PM

22.55%chance

126334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1853

540

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.79%chance

556315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2024

1126

Will there be a martian colony by 2050?

Dec 23, 10:35 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

38.62%chance

805971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

1384

Martial Law declared in USA by end of 2028?

Mar 23, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.78%chance

505228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.91%chance

522606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

871

Who will be the next Speaker of the New York City Council?

Jul 1, 5:59 PMJan 31, 6:53 PM

3807

OptionProbability

Julie Menin

Christopher Marte

Other

Amanda Farías

Crystal Hudson

98

1

1

0

0

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

46.04%chance

13755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

924

Will Martinique gain independence before 2030?

Jul 8, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.07%chance

6301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

852

Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?

Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.95%chance

11285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

993

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
MLB
Arizona
Sports
Diamondbacks Rally Around Marte After Unapproved Absence Sparks Backlash
Authors
8
4 months ago

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