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Prediction markets for Marte

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

481

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.56%chance

8517148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2279

1711

Will the US experience martial law before 2026?

May 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

457472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

426

Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?

Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM

54.7%chance

916084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

757

Will there be a martian colony by 2050?

Dec 23, 10:35 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

38.62%chance

805971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

1384

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

84.58%chance

545914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

1188

Martial Law declared in USA by end of 2028?

Mar 23, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.59%chance

505178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1543

648

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

502545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Will the release of the FBI tapes of Martin Luther King Jr. corroborate the claim that he participated in rape?

Jan 11, 5:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.15%chance

272522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

50.88%chance

11655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will Martinique gain independence before 2030?

Jul 8, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.07%chance

6301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

852

Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?

Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.95%chance

11285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

993

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