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Prediction markets for Marte
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.34%chance
4853458
OptionVotes
2009
482
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?
Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.73%chance
6128700
OptionVotes
1451
549
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
51.06%chance
10927408
OptionVotes
2056
1924
Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?
Jul 24, 10:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.28%chance
789417
OptionVotes
1293
900
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
85.49%chance
606516
OptionVotes
1726
1171
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM
59.14%chance
956477
OptionVotes
1046
850
OptionVotes
1384
1384
OptionVotes
1999
500
Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
62.94%chance
233196
OptionVotes
1304
768
Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?
Apr 5, 2:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
30.06%chance
11685
OptionVotes
1716
770
Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)
Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.67%chance
17499
OptionVotes
1159
920