May News
Top stories
Prediction markets for May
OptionVotes
3391
295
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.98%chance
659864
OptionVotes
2135
912
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
88.26%chance
397502
OptionVotes
2743
365
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
78.37%chance
544712
OptionVotes
1904
525
Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
78.12%chance
422538
OptionVotes
1889
529
During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term
Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM
38.67%chance
181762
OptionVotes
1259
794
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
Aug 31, 2:30 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
42.66%chance
121577
OptionVotes
1159
863
Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?
May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM
24.54%chance
24710
OptionVotes
1312
868
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM
64.02%chance
20691
OptionVotes
1093
775
On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?
Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM
38.1%chance
16529
OptionVotes
1107
778
OptionVotes
1343
576
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.99%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1025
893