May News
Top stories
Prediction markets for May
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
Sep 8, 11:12 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM
8.05%chance
90210725
OptionVotes
3380
296
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.38%chance
6610114
OptionVotes
2385
878
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
88.26%chance
397502
OptionVotes
2743
365
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
79.24%chance
554762
OptionVotes
1954
512
Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
79%chance
432588
OptionVotes
1939
516
During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term
Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM
38.67%chance
181762
OptionVotes
1259
794
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
Aug 31, 2:30 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
39.63%chance
131652
OptionVotes
1234
810
If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?
Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM
25.22%chance
151255
OptionVotes
1722
581
Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?
May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM
24.54%chance
24710
OptionVotes
1312
868
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM
64.02%chance
20691
OptionVotes
1093
775
OptionVotes
1368
557
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.99%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1025
893