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Prediction markets for McCartney
OptionProbability
20
14
12
9
8
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
94
93
91
89
89
86
85
81
80
80
80
79
77
77
76
74
74
74
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72
71
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63
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59
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49
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41
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21
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9
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7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
Will at least one of the Beatles still be alive in 2030?
Jun 18, 8:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
79.4%chance
13988
OptionVotes
1685
724
OptionProbability
67
66
66
66
66
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
34
34
34
24
1
OptionProbability
51
49
OptionVotes
142
120
OptionVotes
95
85
OptionVotes
91
89
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