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Prediction markets for Merz
Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Sep 14, 4:58 PMOct 21, 11:59 PM
174749
OptionProbability
30
24
16
13
4
4
3
3
2
1
Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM
45.99%chance
254628
OptionVotes
1084
923
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Feb 26, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM
323540
OptionProbability
60
15
12
8
3
2
OptionVotes
213
47
Klingbeil steps down as SPD leader before the end of 2026
Aug 23, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.36%chance
10802
OptionVotes
1323
756
Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
May 20, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33%chance
16603
OptionVotes
142
70
Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?
Mar 30, 6:33 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
13.06%chance
15597
OptionVotes
258
39
Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Mar 31, 11:49 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
46.83%chance
13266
OptionVotes
118
94
Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?
Feb 9, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.17%chance
8193
OptionVotes
269
37
Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Feb 9, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.85%chance
7141
OptionVotes
146
68
What will happen to Germany if AfD controlled Chancellorship before 2031?
Oct 6, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM
110
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
Will Russia destroy global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?
Sep 27, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM
11%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
91
Latest stories
Latest stories
- Macron Vows to Finish 2027 Term as Franco-German Summit Backs UkraineAuthors161 year ago
