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Prediction markets for Nakamoto
OptionProbability
22
13
10
5
4
2
OptionProbability
31
25
16
14
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
3332
768
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
20.13%chance
412903
OptionVotes
1023
785
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM
16.82%chance
192038
OptionVotes
2224
450
OptionVotes
1295
701
Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?
Oct 6, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5.84%chance
101324
OptionVotes
547
152
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
20.26%chance
241232
OptionVotes
1019
772
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Nov 14, 9:08 AMJan 8, 10:59 PM
9.43%chance
12911
OptionVotes
310
32
OptionVotes
1061
970
Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?
Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.98%chance
15250
OptionVotes
1152
946
OptionProbability
21
21
21
21
18
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