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Top stories

UK Says It Is Ready to Send Reassurance Force to Ukraine

Authors

3

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Pares

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.9%chance

2116066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17426

6658

Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?

Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM

473191

OptionProbability

Starlink

Microsoft Teams

Google ads

Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

AWS

Reality labs

Apple App store

Omniverse

64

44

42

41

34

26

25

23

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

19.75%chance

16493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

940

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.04%chance

18486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

963

Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be ordered to be broken up in the USA by the end of 2025?

Jan 4, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.79%chance

3115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

47

By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?)

Apr 12, 2:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.15%chance

553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

111

By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?

Jul 21, 9:00 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.9%chance

249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 26, 2:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

94

When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?

Jun 30, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33

OptionProbability

Other

2060

2085

94

4

2

Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 26, 2:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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Aug 18, 2025
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UK Says It Is Ready to Send Reassurance Force to Ukraine
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1 day ago

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