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Top stories

UK Says It Is Ready to Send Reassurance Force to Ukraine

Authors

3

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Pares

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.82%chance

2216116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17476

6645

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be order to be broken up by the USA Government by EOY 2027?

Apr 16, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.75%chance

15894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

421

168

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18.07%chance

17593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

916

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.04%chance

18486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

963

A sitting US President becomes a parent while in office by mid 2036

Nov 12, 4:23 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

12.77%chance

7281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

97

Will Emily’s parents like aren

Mar 6, 4:19 AMDec 31, 5:19 AM

76.5%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

55

Exit valuation of Parea (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

280

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

62

16

16

6

By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?)

Apr 12, 2:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.15%chance

553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

111

By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?

Jul 21, 9:00 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.9%chance

249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

Will "The Missing Genre: Heroic Parenthood - You ca..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Britain
Ukraine
War
UK Says It Is Ready to Send Reassurance Force to Ukraine
Authors
3
7 months ago

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