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Top stories

UK Says It Is Ready to Send Reassurance Force to Ukraine

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Pares

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.39%chance

72644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4431

11

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be order to be broken up by the USA Government by EOY 2027?

Apr 16, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.75%chance

15894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

421

168

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18.14%chance

18594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

917

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.04%chance

18486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

963

A sitting supreme court justice becomes a parent while in office by mid 2036

Nov 12, 4:21 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

14.67%chance

5180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

54

Will parents in Vermont be penalized for their child's sex transition / gender-affirming care

Jan 12, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.64%chance

6127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will "In defense of parents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 4, 12:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.74%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

985

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

7104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Exit valuation of Parea (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

280

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

62

16

16

6

By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?

Jul 21, 9:00 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.9%chance

249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

Will "The Missing Genre: Heroic Parenthood - You ca..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Britain
Ukraine
War
UK Says It Is Ready to Send Reassurance Force to Ukraine
Authors
3
1 year ago

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