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Prediction markets for Parkinson
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036
Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
9.14%chance
421858
OptionVotes
31528
3172
Will Joe Biden ever be formally diagnosed with Parkinson's?
Jul 8, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.41%chance
206216
OptionVotes
2786
359
Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028
Apr 18, 3:55 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
95.04%chance
153212
OptionVotes
3578
649
OptionVotes
570
82
Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease before 2031
Apr 25, 4:08 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
95.63%chance
4347
OptionVotes
433
33
Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?
Apr 24, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
57.64%chance
11292
OptionVotes
167
135
Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in California on May 1 2035?
Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM
79.43%chance
6235
OptionVotes
121
115
A biomarker test to measure progression for Parkinson's Disease is available in the US before 2029
Apr 25, 4:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
71.69%chance
6168
OptionVotes
146
89
Will there be an FDA approved cure for Parkinson's Disease by EOY 2032?
Mar 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.12%chance
7113
OptionVotes
262
219
Will there be a treatment to stop Parkinson's progression in at least 10% of US patients by mid 2028
Feb 4, 5:00 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
18.29%chance
390
OptionVotes
191
71
Will "Parkinson's Law and the Ideology of Statistics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 6, 3:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
31.57%chance
360
OptionVotes
116
41
Will "Parkinson's Heuristic: The Only Time To Do An..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jun 14, 3:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000