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Prediction markets for Patrick Collison
Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?
Jan 4, 7:18 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
7513519
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
97
86
84
81
78
78
75
74
73
69
68
65
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
41
41
39
39
39
39
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
31
31
31
30
30
28
28
23
23
22
22
21
18
17
14
14
9
8
7
5
5
OptionProbability
100
100
100
88
85
73
69
68
67
66
65
64
61
58
58
57
54
52
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
44
43
43
42
42
41
40
40
38
37
32
31
26
25
21
20
20
19
18
17
17
17
17
16
9
5
4
4
1
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
214386
OptionProbability
100
100
100
50
50
37
34
34
25
24
23
22
21
20
20
20
19
16
15
15
15
14
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
0
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
72.55%chance
251885
OptionVotes
1481
722
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
39.03%chance
15395
OptionVotes
1072
946
Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
62.04%chance
9328
OptionVotes
238
182
Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
72.85%chance
12265
OptionVotes
354
219
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.23%chance
16261
OptionVotes
994
994
Will climate geoengineering get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 7:29 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
66.48%chance
10195
OptionVotes
362
198
Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
53.7%chance
7130
OptionVotes
227
221
Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
29.01%chance
669
OptionVotes
242
153
Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
59.64%chance
643
OptionVotes
223
191
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