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Prediction markets for Patrick Collison
Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?
Jan 4, 7:18 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
7212459
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
91
81
78
75
74
73
69
68
67
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
48
46
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
41
41
41
41
41
39
39
39
39
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
30
30
28
25
23
22
18
18
17
7
5
5
OptionProbability
100
100
100
88
85
73
69
68
67
66
65
64
61
58
58
57
54
52
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
44
43
43
42
42
41
40
40
38
37
32
31
26
25
21
20
20
19
18
17
17
17
17
16
9
5
4
4
1
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
182116
OptionProbability
100
92
78
66
55
52
48
46
45
42
41
41
34
31
30
30
30
28
28
28
28
27
24
21
20
17
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
15
14
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
7
5
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
68.62%chance
211582
OptionVotes
1331
784
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35.72%chance
13340
OptionVotes
1164
891
Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
26.9%chance
10282
OptionVotes
409
180
Will farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:49 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
75.86%chance
10207
OptionVotes
399
199
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
43.34%chance
7146
OptionVotes
279
171
Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
52.08%chance
8132
OptionVotes
265
178
Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
53.7%chance
7130
OptionVotes
227
221
Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
60.23%chance
6111
OptionVotes
222
153
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