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Prediction markets for Paul
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
Feb 4, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.8%chance
648747
OptionVotes
2935
654
Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027
Nov 2, 9:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
26.01%chance
343538
OptionVotes
1352
821
OptionVotes
952
888
OptionVotes
2078
849
OptionProbability
100
100
99
72
58
50
46
46
46
29
24
24
24
24
5
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM
33.35%chance
241806
OptionVotes
1355
713
OptionVotes
958
874
Will Logan Paul spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?
Dec 29, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.08%chance
201434
OptionVotes
1024
981
Will Logan Paul be arrested before the end of 2025?
Dec 29, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.54%chance
171355
OptionVotes
1599
839
OptionVotes
2243
446
Will Paul Biya win the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election?
Jun 17, 10:24 AMOct 3, 10:59 PM
63.59%chance
71245
OptionVotes
1322
757
Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026?
Jul 28, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.35%chance
11381
OptionVotes
1100
954