OptionProbability
5
4
6 - 7
3
8 - 9
10 - 11
12 - 15
0
1
2
27
24
21
12
8
Execution date set
Scheduled execution stayed / postponed
Execution date set (post-October 2025)
Executed
Commuted to life / other clemency beyond stay of execution
Executed in 2026
Conviction removed (vacated, pardon, actual innocence, or otherwise)
Released from prison
Executed in 2025
Dies while on death row (not executed)
100
57
50
18
16
Not before 2031
2027
2028
2026
2029
2030
2025
2023
2024
45
26
11
6
2032
60
13
Chancellor after the next general election is not a member of Reform
Robert Jenrick
Other
Nigel Farage
Richard Tice
Zia Yusuf
Nadhim Zahawi
Rupert Lowe
58
10
7
Silja Paymer
Robert Cox
Erik Poicon
Alexander Amoroso
IdaRose Sylvester
Paul Donahue
54
52
OptionVotes
NO
YES
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