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Top stories

Comer Says Biden Spokesman Met President Only Twice in Office

Executive Orders

US Domestic Policy

Comer Says Biden Spokesman Met President Only Twice in Office

Authors

13

11 hours ago

Prediction markets for Sams

Will Sam Altman be Time Person of the Year by 2028?

Feb 8, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.04%chance

13938459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2312

873

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.41%chance

13227373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2284

859

Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2025?

Dec 30, 5:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.08%chance

4121629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4398

227

Will Sam Altman receive a significant equity stake in OpenAI? (>= 3% of the company) before end of 2025?

Sep 27, 5:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.75%chance

666432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1871

391

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.09%chance

124819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5494

16

Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?

May 14, 8:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.1%chance

374214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2882

1783

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

262614

OptionProbability

Other

[None - Position will cease to exist]

Mira Murati

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Greg Brockman

Bret Taylor

Larry Summers

Adam D'Angelo

Andrej Karpathy

Eric Schmidt

Paul Graham

Peter Thiel

Wojciech Zaremba

Ben Horowitz

Jessica Livingston

Marc Benioff

Sheryl Sandberg

Tim Cook

John Doerr

Reed Hastings

Fei Fei Lee

Alexander Wang

George Hotz

Brad Lightcap

Bob Mcgrew

Peter Welinder

Jason Kwon

Mark Chen

Helen Toner

Ilya Sutskever

Emmett Shear

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadela

Jeff Bezos

Demis Hassabis

Robin Li

Clément Delangue

Lila Ibrahim

Alex Karp

Reid Hoffman

Raquel Urtasun

Marc Andreessen

Aidan Gomez

Sandra Rivera

Gary Marcus

Jaime Teevan

Sundar Pichai

Jack Clark

Anna Makanju

Shane Legg

Andrew Ng

Pushmeet Kohli

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Yoshua Bengio

Hinton

Marissa Mayer

Spencer Rascoff

Garry Tan

51

12

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

84.33%chance

272338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2215

512

What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises)

Nov 16, 3:29 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM

48%chance

201863

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1347

750

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

May 3, 4:40 AMJan 4, 12:59 PM

49.69%chance

371441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

353

Will there be a Michael Lewis book centering on OpenAI or Sam Altman?

Aug 8, 7:42 PMAug 9, 3:59 AM

25%chance

10649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

977

Latest stories

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Executive Orders
US Domestic Policy
Politics
Comer Says Biden Spokesman Met President Only Twice in Office
Authors
13
11 hours ago

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