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Prediction markets for Sams
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
10.26%chance
6641051
OptionVotes
29408
3081
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
89.41%chance
13227373
OptionVotes
2284
859
Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
May 14, 8:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
94.51%chance
5010978
OptionVotes
6811
1398
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
58.62%chance
684771
OptionVotes
1198
829
OptionProbability
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?
Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM
84.54%chance
282358
OptionVotes
2235
508
OptionVotes
1299
353
Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?
Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61%chance
16837
OptionVotes
1251
800
Will Sam Altman be appointed to a governmental advisory role in technology or AI by 2029?
Jan 23, 3:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
65.46%chance
20589
OptionVotes
992
986
OptionVotes
1156
934
Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?
May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.08%chance
16235
OptionVotes
1020
980
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