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Prediction markets for Shea
Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?
May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.19%chance
5010868
OptionVotes
14635
3225
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
454104
OptionVotes
1057
822
Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.14%chance
141487
OptionVotes
1991
502
Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?
Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM
23.94%chance
191205
OptionVotes
1057
964
Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?
Jan 26, 7:57 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM
54.29%chance
9950
OptionVotes
1090
918
third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?
May 23, 4:58 PMJul 1, 4:55 PM
30%chance
6673
OptionVotes
1304
838
What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?
Sep 5, 10:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
56.24%chance
14466
OptionVotes
1453
1085
Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?
Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
85.54%chance
16332
OptionVotes
1182
947
OptionVotes
1061
942
OptionVotes
147
40
Will someone extend Ken Stanley's NEAT into Robert Ghrist's sheaves by EOY2026?
May 21, 6:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.99%chance
236
OptionVotes
136
73
Will a 20+page book "abelian shear cohomology OR sheaf theory for wordcels" be written by EOY2028?
Feb 15, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
46.62%chance
27
OptionVotes
107
93
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