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Prediction markets for Shea
Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.27%chance
121122
OptionVotes
1675
597
OptionProbability
34
30
30
30
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
24
24
20
20
20
20
15
11
7
5
Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?
Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
85.54%chance
16332
OptionVotes
1182
947
OptionVotes
147
40
Will someone extend Ken Stanley's NEAT into Robert Ghrist's sheaves by EOY2026?
May 21, 6:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.99%chance
236
OptionVotes
136
73
Will a 20+page book "abelian shear cohomology OR sheaf theory for wordcels" be written by EOY2028?
Feb 15, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
46.62%chance
27
OptionVotes
107
93
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