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Prediction markets for Shor
Will AI be on the shortlist for Time's 2025 Person of the Year?
Nov 20, 3:11 AMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.57%chance
294834
OptionVotes
1321
757
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.01%chance
524788
OptionVotes
2210
976
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM
15.53%chance
272959
OptionVotes
2332
429
OptionProbability
100
100
99
99
70
50
46
45
45
44
43
41
41
41
41
38
36
35
34
34
34
29
18
17
17
17
12
5
4
OptionProbability
42
22
9
6
5
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.48%chance
252203
OptionVotes
1583
632
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM
14.72%chance
11393
OptionVotes
363
158
Will Richard Hanania and David Shor become friends in 2025?
Nov 11, 4:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18.48%chance
3130
OptionVotes
210
48
Will at least 10 UK riot related prosecutions be overturned or have their sentences shortened in the next 2 years?
Aug 12, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.76%chance
3120
OptionVotes
1005
995
OptionVotes
114
88
Will David Shor vote for at least one Republican by 2050?
Jul 22, 9:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.52%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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