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Prediction markets for Shor
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM
10.39%chance
315561
OptionVotes
2937
341
Will the UK introduce rationing due to food shortages by 2030?
May 28, 4:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
17.74%chance
314686
OptionVotes
2153
464
OptionProbability
100
100
99
99
70
50
46
45
45
43
41
41
41
41
40
38
36
35
34
34
34
29
18
17
17
17
9
5
4
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.45%chance
282673
OptionVotes
1346
743
OptionProbability
42
22
9
6
5
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will there be a shortage of IT workers by the end of 2030?
Dec 24, 3:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33.92%chance
191602
OptionVotes
994
929
Will at least 10 UK riot related prosecutions be overturned or have their sentences shortened in the next 2 years?
Aug 12, 1:51 PMAug 12, 10:59 PM
36.47%chance
61404
OptionVotes
1320
758
OptionVotes
1329
892
Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?
Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
79.57%chance
15560
OptionVotes
997
881
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM
14.72%chance
11393
OptionVotes
363
158
OptionVotes
114
88
Will David Shor vote for at least one Republican by 2050?
Jul 22, 9:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.52%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
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