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Top stories

Solana Policy Institute Pledges $500,000 for Tornado Cash Developers’ Appeals

Solana Policy Institute Pledges $500,000 for Tornado Cash Developers’ Appeals

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Storm

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Oct 26, 11:39 PMNov 3, 3:59 AM

47%chance

384366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

882

Which storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Apr 9, 7:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

104020

OptionProbability

Arthur

Bertha

Cristobal

Dolly

Edouard

Fay

Gonzalo

Hanna

Isaias

Josephine

Kyle

Leah

Marco

Nana

Omar

Paulette

Rene

Sally

Teddy

Vicky

Wilfred

100

100

100

100

100

100

79

57

17

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

SOAI#9: Datacenter NIMBYism takes the US by storm and sways certain midterm/gubernatorial elections in 2026

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.7%chance

352813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

910

Will "Solar Storms" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 8, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.93%chance

82390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2676

852

Will Mikael Akerfeldt and Steven Wilson work on a successor of Storm Corrosion in May 2026?

Feb 17, 8:30 PMDec 31, 12:59 AM

96.56%chance

41445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

530

19

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

Mar 19, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.14%chance

12995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1521

905

Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?

May 11, 3:17 PMMay 12, 6:59 AM

50%chance

10819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will there be a William storm before a Kate storm?

May 6, 7:16 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

4.29%chance

3702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

472

21

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Feb 29, 12:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26.44%chance

22654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

842

Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?

Mar 19, 1:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

11278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

191

Will Storm Ascher (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.33%chance

8175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

156

How long will Roman Storm spend in prison?

Aug 19, 6:27 PMAug 20, 6:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

1 year - 3 years

Under 1 year

3 years or more

44

28

28

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Law
Regulation
Blockchains
Solana Policy Institute Pledges $500,000 for Tornado Cash Developers’ Appeals
Authors
8
1 year ago

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