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Prediction markets for Strate
Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?
Jul 27, 9:53 PMFeb 1, 9:59 PM
16.83%chance
270131410
OptionVotes
2223
450
Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?
Sep 5, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:51 PM
80%chance
553582
OptionVotes
1081
902
Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
25.74%chance
111841
OptionVotes
1112
522
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?
May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.2%chance
331729
OptionVotes
1034
786
Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?
Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
26.77%chance
181382
OptionVotes
1515
722
Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?
Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM
42.03%chance
13835
OptionVotes
1355
600
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
57.48%chance
17719
OptionVotes
1215
507
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.45%chance
25717
OptionVotes
1078
925
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?
May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.4%chance
14611
OptionVotes
1026
816
Will "AI Governance to Avoid Extinction: The Strate..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 19, 11:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.16%chance
1250
OptionVotes
1250
964
Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?
Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM
45.87%chance
3201
OptionVotes
1086
921
OptionVotes
1010
994
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