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Top stories

Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement

US Domestic Policy

Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement

Authors

4

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Teles

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Aug 24, 10:15 PMAug 25, 8:59 PM

14.88%chance

9751942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3467

751

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.66%chance

2629444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2024

867

Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026?

Jan 10, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.36%chance

633508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

885

before 2026, will Telegram have given any government access to private messages of its users?

Aug 25, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.81%chance

282258

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

837

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

261369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.35%chance

6675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

978

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will a televised football (soccer) match between humanoid robots and professional humans occur before 2030?

Mar 22, 6:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.03%chance

17610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

840

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

52.46%chance

20597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

982

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

14431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

959

Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028

Dec 12, 3:21 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

34.61%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

728

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Economics
Politics
Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement
Authors
4
6 days ago

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