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Top stories

Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement

US Domestic Policy

Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement

Authors

4

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Teles

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Aug 24, 10:15 PMAug 25, 8:59 PM

11.8%chance

10053982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4021

666

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Oct 30, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

414917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

434

Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026?

Jan 10, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.33%chance

653808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1561

807

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?

May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

81152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

1003

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

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NO

1109

901

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

49.88%chance

21647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

929

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

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NO

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1009

962

Will a televised football (soccer) match between humanoid robots and professional humans occur before 2030?

Mar 22, 6:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.95%chance

17621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

811

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

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NO

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1007

959

Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028

Dec 12, 3:21 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

34.61%chance

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1374

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Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

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NO

1015

987

Latest stories

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Economics
Politics
Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement
Authors
4
5 months ago

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