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Prediction markets for Till

Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?

May 19, 1:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.73%chance

6411875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1693

220

Will we have androids with full human labor capabilities under 10K$ till 2030?

Jan 6, 5:15 AMApr 30, 5:59 PM

9.95%chance

191232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

940

Will Mark Zuckerberg cure all human desises till the end of the century?

Oct 23, 12:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.89%chance

151146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

916

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.81%chance

181014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1121

924

Will the Chinese communist party stay in power till 2033?

Sep 19, 7:44 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

86.06%chance

18648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

970

Will Donald Trump live till the end of 2028?

May 19, 1:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.07%chance

14437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

335

167

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?

Dec 27, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

11409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

312

140

Will India be the superpower till 2035?

Jul 19, 6:17 AMJul 1, 6:29 PM

44.47%chance

7255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

108

Will Amol Rajan continue to be the host of the University Challenge through till the end of 2026?

Oct 18, 11:03 AMOct 25, 6:29 PM

87.3%chance

4245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

29

Will Enhanced Game continue running till 2030?

Feb 1, 6:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

15.25%chance

10200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

956

Will the Adidas Backpack I bought last till Nov. 1 2026? (4 years from purchase)

Nov 5, 6:37 PMNov 1, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

7117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

134

Will ""Buckle up bucko, this ain't over till it's o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 6, 5:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.44%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

754

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