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Prediction markets for Torre
OptionProbability
19
14
10
10
8
7
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
27
15
12
7
6
6
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
18
13
12
10
9
9
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Ritchie Torres be the next governor of New York?
Feb 21, 3:53 PMNov 29, 4:59 AM
10.44%chance
1429579
OptionVotes
2929
341
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic Party Candidate for President in 2028?
Feb 16, 6:25 PMNov 24, 4:59 AM
1.71%chance
1516196
OptionVotes
7584
132
OptionProbability
99
98
97
97
96
95
90
88
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
89
89
89
89
88
88
86
84
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
81
81
79
78
78
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
73
72
72
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
66
66
65
65
62
59
52
50
50
48
46
45
41
41
41
37
37
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
32
31
27
24
24
23
17
10
10
8
5
Who will become the next governor of New York after Kathy Hochul?
Jul 6, 9:00 PMJul 11, 8:59 PM
164656
OptionProbability
74
7
4
4
4
2
2
2
1
In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Nov 24, 7:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
311712
OptionProbability
40
12
9
9
5
5
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
54
10
9
7
4
4
4
4
3
What National DSA-endorsed candidates will win their elections in 2026?
Jul 18, 11:29 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM
10353
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
66
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in New York?
Nov 5, 11:18 PMJun 28, 12:00 PM
4234
OptionProbability
40
34
23
3
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