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Prediction markets for Tyler
Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?
May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4%chance
6411797
OptionVotes
4902
204
OptionVotes
2935
341
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM
17.33%chance
181998
OptionVotes
2184
458
When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?
Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM
61519
OptionProbability
41
34
19
2
2
1
1
Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028
Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM
97.57%chance
20950
OptionVotes
909
49
Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.11%chance
15650
OptionVotes
1403
844
Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM
8.28%chance
10635
OptionVotes
731
160
Will mickey be featured in a Dr Who episode with the regenerated rose Tyler by the end of 2026?
Jun 1, 7:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
5.09%chance
3368
OptionVotes
432
23
Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)
Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
62.79%chance
16231
OptionVotes
1002
985
Will Tyler Arnold (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18%chance
5191
OptionVotes
239
112
Will Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?
Sep 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.21%chance
1101
OptionVotes
199
50
Does the shortest possible universal program contain Tyler Cowen in it?
Sep 18, 7:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65%chance
221
OptionVotes
109
76
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