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Urban News

    Prediction markets for Urban

    OptionProbability

    Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

    Gene Editing Therapies

    Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

    Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

    Regenerative Medicine

    Brain-Computer Interfaces

    Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

    Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

    Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

    Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

    Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

    Solar panels with 40% efficiency

    Bioprinting

    Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

    Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

    a molecule derived using Alphafold (current or successor models) achieves over $1B of commercial retail sales

    Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

    viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

    Human-level AGI

    Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

    Space-Based Manufacturing

    Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

    Seafloor Mining Robots

    Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

    Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

    Quantum Computing Applications

    Graphene semiconductor electronics

    ASI

    Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

    Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

    Lunar Bases

    Moon base

    Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

    More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

    Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

    Britain finishes HS2

    Direct Cognitive Collaboration

    Photonic computing

    A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

    Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

    Commercial asteroid mining

    Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

    Datacenters in space

    Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

    Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.

    Joywire

    Commercial fusion power

    Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

    Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

    Fast travel across the globe

    AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

    Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

    Nuclear powered cargo ships

    City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

    Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

    Mars Base

    Nuclear Thermal Rockets

    Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

    Cryonics with Successful Revival

    Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

    Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

    Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

    Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

    Human Mind Uploading

    Changing the height of an adult at will

    Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

    Orbital Habitats

    Fusion Drives

    Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

    Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

    Space-to-Earth power stations

    Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

    Human sex change at chromosome level

    Changing a person's race at will

    Von Neumann Probe

    A skyhook space structure in LEO

    Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

    Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

    Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

    Vacuum Airships

    Time travel to the future

    Commercial cold fusion

    Space Elevator

    Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

    Antimatter bombs

    Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

    Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

    1% Dyson sphere coverage

    Faster then Light Propulsion

    Time travel to the past

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    OptionProbability

    Gunplay

    Bond will be a man

    Bond drives a car

    Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

    On screen fatalities

    London will appear on screen

    Car chase scene

    Urban scene

    Bond tells ≥1 joke

    Blue-eyed Bond

    Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

    World capital other than London appears on screen

    A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

    A named character speaks in a language other than English

    Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

    Bond drinks a martini

    Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

    Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

    Opening action sequence

    The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

    Gun Barrel Sequence

    Sex scene

    Q appears

    Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

    Hacking electronics of some form

    Bond uses explosives

    The plot will be predominantly set in present day

    Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

    The main theme song will be sung by a female

    The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

    Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

    A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

    Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

    Asia will appear on screen

    It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

    Someone goes through a pane of glass

    A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

    "King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

    Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

    Someone in the movie says the title

    @HenriThunberg enjoys the film

    It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

    The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

    >= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

    The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

    Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

    South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

    The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

    Bond rides a motorcycle

    >=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

    Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

    A sniper rifle is fired

    At least a portion filmed in Canada

    There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

    Bond wields a Walther PPK

    Interracial sex scene

    Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

    Jungle / forest scene

    Bond flys an aircraft

    James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

    Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

    Casino game scene

    Bond parachutes

    It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

    Bond wears shorts

    Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

    >=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

    Arctic scene

    Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

    Bond gets slapped

    M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

    Prison/jail scene

    Black market trafficking

    A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

    Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

    Released in 2028

    Skydiving

    The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

    A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

    Bond licks something

    Bond and a pond shown on screen together

    someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

    Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

    Bond slaps someone

    A scene shows James Bond naked

    Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

    Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

    Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

    There will be a voiced character that is an AI

    Bond rides a bicycle

    Torture

    James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

    Bond receives a gunshot wound

    A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

    Wilhelm scream

    Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

    The title will refer to life and/or death

    @brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

    Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

    Bond drives a boat

    A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

    Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

    James Bond plays poker

    Bond commits arson

    Oral sex

    Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

    Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

    Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

    Bond has facial hair

    Terrorists

    US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

    Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

    A safe is cracked (any means possible)

    Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

    Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

    Desert scene

    The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

    A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

    Ski chase scene

    Drug use

    Someone/something is x-rayed

    Thunderstorm

    Dessert scene

    An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    President of the United States is mentioned

    IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

    Robots

    Death of a Bond love interest

    It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

    Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

    Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

    There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

    Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

    Bond wears a mask

    Sharks

    Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

    Bond will be in a submarine

    James Bond plays baccarat

    Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

    Cryptocurrency is referenced

    Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

    Bond is LQBTQ+

    James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

    Main villain speaks Russian on screen

    Bond has a disability

    Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

    Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

    Mexico is shown on screen

    Jetpack

    The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

    Bond rides an animal

    Nazis (neo- counts)

    An EMP device plays a central role.

    Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

    At least one named character below 18 years old

    Canada is shown on screen

    Orgy

    Will feature something that can turn invisible

    Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

    Underwater combat

    Bond goes to space

    The word "fuck" is said more than once.

    With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

    Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

    Bond is blond

    Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

    Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

    A hamburger appears on screen

    Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

    A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    Assplay

    Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

    Bond plays Russian roulette

    Bond uses a VR headset

    Bond has a neck tattoo

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

    The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

    Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

    fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

    A pinball machine will appear.

    Gay sex scene

    Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

    Pirates

    Emilia Clarke portrays a character

    A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

    Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

    Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

    San Francisco is shown on screen

    Pegging

    Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

    Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

    Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

    Satanism

    Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

    A clocks shows the time 4:20

    It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

    Feature Nightcore music

    Bond uses chopsticks

    Supernatural entities

    There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

    ChatGPT is referenced by any character

    Released in 2026

    Nuclear explosion

    Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

    Any character says the word "anime"

    Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

    Vampires

    Bond vapes

    Bond won't be Caucasian

    The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

    Bond dies

    Scat play

    Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

    Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

    Horse cock on screen (erect)

    Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

    Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

    The handkerchief code is a major plot element

    James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

    Bond is vegan

    The fourth wall is broken

    It will be directed by a woman

    Bond plays League of Legends

    Destiny appears on screen

    Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

    Dragons

    Dinosaurs

    It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

    Bond hits the griddy

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    2

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    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    14866

    7407

    OptionProbability

    Attorney General: Pam Bondi

    Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

    Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

    Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

    Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

    Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

    Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

    Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

    Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

    Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

    Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

    Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

    United States Trade Representative: James Greer

    Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

    Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

    Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

    Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

    Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

    Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

    Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

    Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

    President: Donald Trump

    Vice President: JD Vance

    100

    100

    100

    100

    80

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    75

    73

    58

    42

    35

    34

    29

    27

    27

    27

    24

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    22

    22

    21

    20

    16

    15

    10

    3

    Who will attend Aella’s plzdontkillus

    Apr 29, 7:28 AMDec 31, 6:21 AM
    129243

    OptionProbability

    Aella

    CJ the X

    Rob Miles

    Solar Sands

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Andrea Botez

    Ordinarythings

    Scott Alexander

    Tristan Harris

    Tim Urban

    idubbbz

    Dax Flame

    Micheal Reeves

    Any #Vsauce

    CGP Grey

    XKCD

    Yung Gravy

    Lex Fridman

    Destiny

    Mr Beast

    Bbyno$

    Jordan Peterson

    Elon Musk

    PewDiePie

    Sam Altman

    Joe Rogan

    Donald Trump

    100

    100

    100

    100

    94

    81

    50

    20

    20

    10

    8

    8

    8

    8

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    OptionProbability

    Social Media

    Increased awareness/willingness to diagnose

    Phones

    Mass Psychogenic Illness

    Some form of intentional psychological manipulation (algorithmic manipulation, intentional group polarization, psychological warfare, etc.)

    There actually is no mental health crisis, it just looks like there is one due to e.g. biased reporting

    The postmodern condition becoming more widespread

    Hearing about bad things going on (like Climate Change)

    REM defficient sleep

    Psychoactive drugs (prescribed or recreational)

    Socioeconomic hardships

    Urbanicity

    Microplastics

    Nanoplastics

    Some sort of ingested/inhaled contaminant

    cocaine dust particles passive intake

    COVID vaccine side effect

    80

    78

    67

    62

    59

    57

    57

    51

    48

    34

    30

    28

    21

    12

    8

    4

    2

    OptionProbability

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

    John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

    Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

    Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

    Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    99

    96

    88

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    84

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    80

    69

    59

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1760

    347

    Will I give birth before age 30?

    Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM
    62.48%chance
    121171

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1291

    775

    Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 9, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    20%chance
    13460

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1125

    943

    Detroit LVT: Will average urban density increase? (2028)

    Oct 13, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    75.43%chance
    9220

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    191

    153

    Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

    Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM
    47.09%chance
    260

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1060

    943

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