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Urban News

    Prediction markets for Urban

    OptionProbability

    Bond will be a man

    Gunplay

    Bond drives a car

    On screen fatalities

    London will appear on screen

    Urban scene

    Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

    Car chase scene

    Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

    Bond tells ≥1 joke

    A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

    A named character speaks in a language other than English

    Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

    Bond drinks a martini

    Opening action sequence

    The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

    Gun Barrel Sequence

    Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

    Sex scene

    World capital other than London appears on screen

    Hacking electronics of some form

    Q appears

    Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

    Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

    Bond uses explosives

    The plot will be predominantly set in present day

    Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

    The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

    Someone in the movie says the title

    Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

    A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

    Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

    Asia will appear on screen

    Someone goes through a pane of glass

    A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

    It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

    It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

    The main theme song will be sung by a female

    There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

    "King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

    Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

    @HenriThunberg enjoys the film

    The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

    South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

    The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

    Bond rides a motorcycle

    A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

    >=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

    Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

    A sniper rifle is fired

    Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

    At least a portion filmed in Canada

    A scene shows James Bond naked

    Blue-eyed Bond

    Bond wields a Walther PPK

    Interracial sex scene

    Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

    Jungle / forest scene

    M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

    Bond flys an aircraft

    James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

    Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

    Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

    Bond parachutes

    It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

    Bond wears shorts

    Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

    >=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

    Arctic scene

    Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

    Death of a Bond love interest

    Bond gets slapped

    Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

    The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

    Prison/jail scene

    A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

    Black market trafficking

    Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

    Released in 2028

    The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

    Bond licks something

    Bond and a pond shown on screen together

    Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

    someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

    Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

    Bond slaps someone

    Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

    James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

    A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

    Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

    Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

    There will be a voiced character that is an AI

    Bond rides a bicycle

    Torture

    Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

    Bond receives a gunshot wound

    A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

    Wilhelm scream

    The title will refer to life and/or death

    @brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

    Bond drives a boat

    A safe is cracked (any means possible)

    Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

    James Bond plays poker

    Bond commits arson

    Nazis (neo- counts)

    Cryptocurrency is referenced

    Oral sex

    Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

    Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

    Terrorists

    US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

    Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

    Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

    Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

    A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

    Desert scene

    The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

    Ski chase scene

    Drug use

    Someone/something is x-rayed

    Thunderstorm

    Dessert scene

    An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    President of the United States is mentioned

    IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

    Robots

    Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

    Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

    It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

    Bond has facial hair

    There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

    Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

    Bond wears a mask

    Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

    James Bond plays baccarat

    Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

    Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

    Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

    Bond will be in a submarine

    Bond goes to space

    Bond is LQBTQ+

    Bond rides an animal

    James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

    Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

    Main villain speaks Russian on screen

    Bond has a disability

    Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

    Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

    Mexico is shown on screen

    Jetpack

    The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

    A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

    Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

    An EMP device plays a central role.

    At least one named character below 18 years old

    Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

    Canada is shown on screen

    Sharks

    Orgy

    fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

    Will feature something that can turn invisible

    A pinball machine will appear.

    Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

    Underwater combat

    The word "fuck" is said more than once.

    With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

    Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

    The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

    Bond is blond

    Pirates

    Assplay

    Emilia Clarke portrays a character

    Bond won't be Caucasian

    A hamburger appears on screen

    Bond uses a VR headset

    Bond has a neck tattoo

    Nuclear explosion

    Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

    Satanism

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

    Bond plays Russian roulette

    It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

    Gay sex scene

    ChatGPT is referenced by any character

    Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

    Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

    A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

    Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

    San Francisco is shown on screen

    Pegging

    Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

    Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

    Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

    A clocks shows the time 4:20

    Feature Nightcore music

    Supernatural entities

    Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

    There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

    Bond uses chopsticks

    Released in 2026

    Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

    Any character says the word "anime"

    Vampires

    Bond vapes

    The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

    Bond dies

    The fourth wall is broken

    Scat play

    Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

    Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

    Horse cock on screen (erect)

    Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

    The handkerchief code is a major plot element

    James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

    Bond is vegan

    It will be directed by a woman

    Bond plays League of Legends

    Destiny appears on screen

    Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

    Dragons

    Dinosaurs

    It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

    Bond hits the griddy

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    1

    OptionProbability

    Gene Editing Therapies

    Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

    Human-level AGI

    Regenerative Medicine

    Brain-Computer Interfaces

    Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

    Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

    Bioprinting

    Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

    Solar panels with 40% efficiency

    Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

    Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

    Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

    Quantum Computing Applications

    Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

    Space-Based Manufacturing

    Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

    Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

    Seafloor Mining Robots

    A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

    Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

    Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

    Joywire

    Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

    Commercial fusion power

    Britain finishes HS2

    Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

    Lunar Bases

    Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

    Commercial asteroid mining

    City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

    Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

    Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

    Nuclear Thermal Rockets

    Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

    Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

    Space-to-Earth power stations

    Fusion Drives

    Changing the height of an adult at will

    Direct Cognitive Collaboration

    Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

    Mars Base

    Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

    Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

    Orbital Habitats

    Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

    Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

    Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

    Changing a person's race at will

    Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

    Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

    Human sex change at chromosome level

    Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

    Vacuum Airships

    Human Mind Uploading

    Antimatter bombs

    Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

    Time travel to the future

    Cryonics with Successful Revival

    Commercial cold fusion

    Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

    1% Dyson sphere coverage

    Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

    Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

    Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

    Space Elevator

    Faster then Light Propulsion

    Time travel to the past

    96

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    74

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    2

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    14347

    7601

    Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?

    May 15, 11:06 AMNov 16, 11:45 AM
    11815487

    OptionProbability

    Max Tegmark

    Vitalik Buterin

    Emmett Shear

    Bruce Schneier

    George Church

    Scott Aaronson

    Daniel Kokotajlo

    Ben Bernanke

    Stephen Fry

    Tim Urban

    Grimes

    Scott Alexander

    A former Fed Chair

    Neel Nanda

    A professor of a Chinese university

    Stuart Russell

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Carl Feynman

    Yoshua Bengio

    Yuval Noah Harari

    Toby Ord

    Nick Bostrom

    Geoffrey Irving

    Billy Perrigo

    Gwern

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Kevin Roose

    Ezra Klein

    Manifold

    Helen Toner

    Patrick McKenzie

    Publishers Weekly

    Vox

    Christine Peterson

    Booklist

    Keach Hagey

    Bill Gates

    Evan Hubinger

    Joe Rogan

    Kurzgesagt

    San Francisco Chronicle

    NPR

    Politico

    Lex Fridman

    The Economist

    David Chalmers

    Peter Singer

    A former US Secretary of Treasury

    BBC

    Time

    Any five current members of the UK Parliament

    A former US Secretary of Energy

    A former US Secretary of Commerce

    Tucker Carlson

    WIRED

    Eric Schmidt

    Matthew Yglesias

    Gillian Hadfield

    Karen Hao

    A review in The Atlantic

    Telegraph

    The New York Times Book Review

    Peter Norvig

    At least five Nobel laureates

    Rolling Stone

    The New Yorker

    A former US Secretary of State

    A Science editorial

    The Guardian

    Ray Kurzweil

    John Schulman

    A current pope

    Financial Times

    Bloomberg Businessweek

    Forbes

    A New Scientist editorial

    A current US Secretary of Treasury

    John Oliver

    IEEE Spectrum

    Vanity Fair

    roon

    Elon Musk

    Mustafa Suleyman

    Judea Pearl

    António Guterres

    Foreign Affairs

    Barack Obama

    A Scientific American editorial

    A Nature editorial

    The Washington Post

    Associated Press

    Any five current United States representatives

    The Wall Street Journal

    Anthropic

    Shane Legg

    Ilya Sutskever

    A current UK prime minister

    JD Vance

    Alexandr Wang

    Daron Acemoglu

    A high-ranking Chinese government official

    Reuters

    RFK Jr

    Ivanka Trump

    Narendra Modi

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Terence Tao

    CNN

    Mr. Beast

    Peter Thiel

    Jimmy Fallon

    Mira Murati

    Richard Sutton

    A current Fed Chair

    Ursula von der Leyen

    OpenAI

    DeepMind

    Demis Hassabis

    Daniela Amodei

    Jensen Huang

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Joe Biden

    Dario Amodei

    Any five current United States senators

    Jeff Bezos

    Satya Nadella

    Greg Egan

    A current US Secretary of Energy

    Bill Clinton

    JK Rowling

    Fox News

    Chris Olah

    A current US Secretary of Commerce

    A current US Secretary of State

    Noam Chomsky

    Donald J. Trump

    Vladimir Putin

    Tim Cook

    Kamala Harris

    King Charles

    Xi Jinping

    Taylor Swift

    Sam Altman

    Yann LeCun

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    OptionProbability

    Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

    Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

    Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

    Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

    Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

    Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

    Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

    Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

    Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

    Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

    Attorney General: Pam Bondi

    Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

    Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

    Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

    United States Trade Representative: James Greer

    Ambassador to the United Nations:

    Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

    Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

    Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

    Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

    Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

    President: Donald Trump

    Vice President: JD Vance

    78

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    22

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    8

    OptionProbability

    Social Media

    Increased awareness/willingness to diagnose

    REM defficient sleep

    Mass Psychogenic Illness

    Phones

    Some form of intentional psychological manipulation (algorithmic manipulation, intentional group polarization, psychological warfare, etc.)

    There actually is no mental health crisis, it just looks like there is one due to e.g. biased reporting

    The postmodern condition becoming more widespread

    Hearing about bad things going on (like Climate Change)

    Psychoactive drugs (prescribed or recreational)

    Urbanicity

    Socioeconomic hardships

    Microplastics

    Some sort of ingested/inhaled contaminant

    Nanoplastics

    cocaine dust particles passive intake

    COVID vaccine side effect

    78

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    12

    4

    2

    Who will be on the Complex Systems podcast in 2025?

    Jan 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    92267

    OptionProbability

    Jennifer Pahlka

    Matt Levine

    Daniel Abraham

    Bruce Schneier

    Rob Walling

    Blake Scholl

    Tarek Mansour

    Will Wright

    Chris Dixon

    Dylan Matthews

    Andy Matuschak

    Byrne Hobart

    Tyler Cowen

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Nate Soares

    Paul Graham

    Vitalik Buterin

    John Carmack

    Ben Thompson

    Patrick Collison

    John Collison

    Oliver Habryka

    Dirk Didascalou

    Naval Ravikant

    Tim Urban

    Dominic Cummings

    Balaji Srinivasan

    Gwern Branwen

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    Scott Alexander

    72

    70

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    42

    41

    41

    39

    32

    31

    31

    31

    31

    25

    25

    20

    20

    20

    14

    8

    8

    5

    Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

    Jan 9, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    20%chance
    12410

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1125

    943

    Detroit LVT: Will average urban density increase? (2028)

    Oct 13, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    74%chance
    8210

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    181

    156

    LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]

    Aug 8, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Eliezer Yudkowksy

    Zvi Mowshowitz

    Tim Urban

    Joscha Bach

    Scott Alexander

    Duncan Sabien

    Other

    14

    14

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    14

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    14

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