OptionProbability
The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025
The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital
Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast
The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers
Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist
The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs
I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025
The company will have at least 100 employees
A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025
I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)
Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company
The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025
The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher
The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel
The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)
The company will include at least one image on its website
The company will be involved in a lawsuit
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model
The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources
The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU
The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA
The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input
It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data
The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities
The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)
The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment
The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment
The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/
The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models
The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)
The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought
The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract
Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company
The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website
Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen
The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)
Elon musk will be an investor of the company
I’ll work there (@mr_mino)
The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology
The company will make a GAN
The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations
It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company
It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)
I'll work there (@AndrewG)
There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members
The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms
It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW
The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages
The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers
The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be acquired by another company
The company will declare bankruptcy
The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will be publicly traded
The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen
The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system
The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)
The company will build their own AI chips
The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence
The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system
I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing
Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)
Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players
The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW
The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)
The company will release an app available on iPhone or android
The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines
The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals
The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher
The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll
The company will change its name
The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024
The company will be merged with or acquired by another company
The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
85
69
37
31
24
20
20
16
11
10
9
9
9
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
95
95
89
85
85
83
80
79
79
79
77
76
75
75
74
73
72
72
71
68
67
65
63
62
62
60
59
58
58
57
57
56
56
54
52
50
50
50
48
45
45
45
45
44
43
43
41
41
40
40
39
39
39
38
37
37
36
35
33
33
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
30
30
29
29
28
28
26
25
23
23
21
21
21
21
20
18
18
17
17
16
15
14
13
11
11
10
10
8
8
7
7
5
3
2
0
0
OptionProbability
Kirby
Pit
Captain Falcon
Donkey Kong
Lucina
Toon Link
Luigi
Jigglypuff
Mario
Link
Samus
Pikachu
Ness
Peach
Bowser
Ice Climbers
Sheik
Zelda
Dr. Mario
Pichu
Falco
Marth
Ganondorf
Roy
Meta Knight
Zero Suit Samus
Wario
Sonic
King Dedede
R.O.B
Wolf
Villager
Shulk
Bowser Jr.
Duck Hunt
Ryu
Cloud
Simon Belmont
King K. Rool
Steve
Other
Yoshi
Fox
Young Link
Mewtwo
Mr. Game & Watch
Snake
Ike
PKMN Trainer
Diddy Kong
Lucas
Olimar
Lucario
Mega Man
Wii Fit Trainer
Rosalina & Luma
Little Mac
Greninja
Mii Fighter
Palutena
Pac-Man
Robin
Corrin
Bayonetta
Inkling
Ridley
Richter
Isabelle
Incineroar
Piranha Plant
Joker
Hero
Banjo-Kazooie
Terry Bogard
Byleth
24
21
7
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Avi Lewis
Heather McPherson
Rob Ashton
Leah Gazan
Tanille Johnston
Ruth Ellen Brosseau
Valérie Plante
Jenny Kwan
Tony McQuail
Other
Rachel Notley
Matthew Green
Wab Kinew
Alexandre Boulerice
Nathan Cullen
Don Davies
Yves Engler
Niki Ashton
Charlie Angus
Peter Julian
John Horgan
34
26
16
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Number of president executive orders in 2025
Number of USA presidential pardons in 2025
Number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic hurricane season
Doomsday Clock seconds to midnight
Largest earthquake in 2025 (eg 7.5 would be 75%)
Bitcoin value (eg 50K would be 50%)
How many total videos on Joseph Anderson's Youtube Channel
Highest Number of Home Runs hit by a single player in 2025 MLB season
Age of Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025
How many countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic
How many nuclear power plants operating in the USA
Number of Republican Senators
Latest ChatGPT version number released (eg 6.5 would be 65%)
How many new shows on Broadway in 2025
How many points the winning Superbowl team has
Last 2 digits of Minecraft Bedrock's most recent patch (eg 1.50.30 would be 30%)
Average of the Jersey numbers of the Cy Young award winner
How many US states have legalized recreational marijuana
How many points the losing Superbowl team has
How many SpaceX Launches in Dec of 2025
Number of anime profile pics in Manifold's top 100 traders
Jersey number of the Heisman trophy winner
Number of trillion dollar companies
Manifold's average MAU (eg 25k would be 25%)
Jersey number of the NBA rookie of the year
99
99
99
90
88
87
67
60
58
56
55
53
51
48
40
36
30
30
22
20
17
10
9
8
6
OptionProbability
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Government seeks the death penalty
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Defense files motion to suppress evidence
Gag order imposed on case participants
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment
Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice
Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes
Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause
Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts
Defense claims violation of Miranda rights
Competency evaluation is sought by the defense
Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity
Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Defense requests change in venue
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Court grants competency evaluation
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Mangione attempts suicide
Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Bail hearing results in release with monitoring
Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point
100
100
100
100
100
78
53
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
45
45
31
31
31
27
25
22
20
20
20
18
14
11
OptionVotes
NO
YES
11058
9043
OptionProbability
Cole is male
FBI/DOJ say Cole acted alone
Cole was a Trump supporter as of 1/5/21
Cole will be convicted by jury
Cole was an anarchist as of 1/5/2021
Cole's intention for planting the pipe bombs was simply to cause chaos (without helping any side)
Cole’s intention for planting the pipe bombs was to protest 2024 election outcome/divert Congress from validating it
Cole’s intention of planting the bombs was to aid the 1/6 rioters
Cole was antifa as of 1/5/2021
Cole was a Biden supporter as of 1/5/21
99
84
82
81
65
50
50
24
8
8
OptionProbability
Robots
Some As of Early 2024 Not Even Published Yet Architecture as Revolutionary as Transformers was in 2017
Synthetic Biology / Genetic Engineering: For example, developing new vaccines, engineering proteins for sustainable fabric production, developing cell-cultured meats, plant-based meat alternatives, and engineering human immune cells.
Quantum Computing
86
67
58
17
OptionProbability
No plants will be known to be growing
Other
A novel species engineered for the purpose
Algae (non seaweed)
le moon grass
Strawberries
Potatoes
Seaweed
Duckweed
Flowers (of any kind)
Corn
Grass
Blueberries
Carrots
24
17
14
11
7
7
5
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Mosquito
Other
Fruit fly
Screwworm
Fish
Human
Plant
Fungus
50
16
13
7
7
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Benjamin Netanyahu
Nick Bostrom
Pope Leo XIV
JD Vance
Mick Jagger
Keith Richards
Paul McCartney
Ringo Starr
Robert Plant
Jimmy Page
John Paul Jones (musician)
Brian May
Roger Taylor (Queen drummer)
John Deacon
Bill Wyman
Vladimir Putin
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Chuck Norris
Walter Koenig
Ray Kurzweil
Paul R. Ehrlich
Charles III
Iggy Pop
John Lydon
14th Dalai Lama
Naruhito
Martin Richards (computer scientist)
Ken Thompson
Bjarne Stroustrup
Curtis Yarvin
Valentina Tereshkova
George Takei
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
William Shatner
Noam Chomsky
67
66
66
66
66
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
34
34
34
24
