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Top stories

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Authors

4

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Wagner

Best Lead Actor winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 2:07 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

2816927

OptionProbability

Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another

Michael B. Jordan - Sinners

Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon

73

12

7

4

4

Who will win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jan 7, 11:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81706

OptionProbability

Timothée Chalamet

Leonardo DiCaprio

Michael B. Jordan

Wagner Moura

Ethan Hawke

Jeremy Allen White

Dwayne Johnson

Jesse Plemons

Joel Edgerton

Paul Mescal

Brad Pitt

Vahid Mobasseri

George Clooney

Colin Farrell

Sergi Lopez

Lee Byung-hun

Oscar Issac

Other

72

11

7

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner

Jan 3, 6:15 PMMar 17, 11:00 AM

211222

OptionProbability

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)

Joaquin Phoenix (Eddington)

Daniel Day-Lewis

Dwayne Johnson

Other

Brendan Fraser (Rental Family)

73

12

7

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

39.89%chance

27644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

317

100

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will the revolution be televised?

Jul 25, 1:43 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

44.52%chance

5260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

87

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.93%chance

11255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

344

223

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

145

When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?

Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

43.42%chance

590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

984

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Sports
Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden
Authors
4
5 months ago

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