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Top stories

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Authors

4

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Wagner

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

SSPX Bishops to be consecrated July 01, 2026

Feb 13, 8:25 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

4852

OptionProbability

Fr Daniel Themann

Fr Christian Bouchacourt

Fr John McFarland

Fr Davide Pagliarani

Fr Goldade

Fr John Fullerton

Fr Alexander Wiseman

Fr Benoît de Jorna

Fr Wagner

86

65

46

33

28

17

14

14

9

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

31.84%chance

30768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

298

134

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

223

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will the revolution be televised?

Jul 25, 1:43 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

44.52%chance

5260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

87

Will farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:49 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

75.86%chance

10207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

399

199

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.34%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

171

Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.7%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

221

1B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

May 16, 4:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.79%chance

432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

108

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Sports
Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden
Authors
4
7 months ago

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