OptionProbability
George Hotz
Ilya Sutskever
Gwern Branwen
Ajeya Cotra
Jared Kaplan
Andrej Karpathy
Michael Levin
Amanda Askell
Chris Olah
Noam Brown
Joscha Bach
Tanner Greer
Greg Brockman (gdb)
Mira Murati
Geoffrey Hinton
Michael Pettis
Matthew Klein
Connor Leahy
Zvi Mowshowitz
Robert Caro
Nora Belrose
Helen Toner
Wang Huning
Spencer Greenberg
Janus @repligate
Barack Obama
Bill Gates
Elon Musk
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
100
98
95
73
70
58
51
50
43
38
36
35
32
31
30
29
28
20
13
3
Other
Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)
Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)
Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)
Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)
Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)
[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)
Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)
Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)
Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)
Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)
Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)
Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)
Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)
Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)
Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)
Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)
15
12
10
2
1
Wang Yang
Ding Xuexiang
Li Qiang
Cai Qi
Wang Yi
No one
Xi Jinping
Chen Jining
Huang Kunming
Li Xi
Hu Chunhua
Chen Min'er
40
18
11
6
OptionVotes
NO
YES
85
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