Winter News

Josh Willie Elected Tasmanian Labor Leader With Janie Finlay Deputy After Dean Winter No-Confidence Motion; Liberals Retain Power in Hung Parliament

10 months ago

aespa Previews “Rich Man” Mini-Album Ahead of 5 Sept. Launch

Korea

Music

Culture

aespa Previews “Rich Man” Mini-Album Ahead of 5 Sept. Launch

10 months ago

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.95%chance

257109895

OptionVotes

YES

2056

473

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.04%chance

10223583

OptionVotes

YES

2349

1658

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Oct 26, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5917034

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

2026

2029

2028

2027

2024

2025

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Jun 12, 6:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.42%chance

327893

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Mar 27, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

1277166

OptionVotes

YES

1287

1228

Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia?

Sep 12, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.75%chance

144357

OptionVotes

YES

2822

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

43.98%chance

212460

OptionVotes

YES

1129

887

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.82%chance

542279

OptionVotes

YES

988

973

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.69%chance

391648

OptionVotes

YES

1052

894

Will Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?

Sep 30, 12:46 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

42.2%chance

5710

OptionVotes

YES

1170

854

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.67%chance

17499

OptionVotes

YES

1159

920

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

YES

1100

941

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Korea
Music
Culture
aespa Previews “Rich Man” Mini-Album Ahead of 5 Sept. Launch
Authors
3
10 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Australia
Politics
World
Josh Willie Elected Tasmanian Labor Leader With Janie Finlay Deputy After Dean Winter No-Confidence Motion; Liberals Retain Power in Hung Parliament
Authors
6
10 months ago

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Winter News

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Prediction markets for Winter

Prediction markets for Winter

Prediction markets for Winter

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia?

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Will Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Latest stories

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