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Prediction markets for Winter
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
25%chance
253103473
OptionVotes
1788
550
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.98%chance
9519841
OptionVotes
2264
1728
In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
Oct 26, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
5714002
OptionProbability
61
11
9
8
8
2
1
OptionVotes
1075
930
OptionVotes
1403
1234
OptionVotes
532
19
OptionVotes
997
980
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
66.02%chance
381598
OptionVotes
1002
985
Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
39.53%chance
161155
OptionVotes
1238
809
Will Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?
Sep 30, 12:46 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM
42.2%chance
5710
OptionVotes
1170
854
Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)
Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.67%chance
17499
OptionVotes
1159
920
In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?
Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM
74.77%chance
12294
OptionVotes
1100
941
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