
OptionProbability
Jacob Tsimerman
Hong Wang
John Pardon
Yu Deng
Jack Thorne
Other
Xian-Jin Li
Sam Raskin
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Will Sawin
Aleksandr Logunov
Vesselin Dimitrov
Alexander Efimov
Javier Fresan
Maksym Radziwill
Karim Adiprasito
Song Sun
Tatenda Kubalalika
Elia Bruè
Amol Aggarwal
Akhil Mathew
Ashwin Sah
Maria Colombo
Simion Filip
Jeremy Hahn
Lisa Sauermann
Dennis Gaitsgory
(duplicate, will resolve no)
Yibo Gao
Mike Wolf
Joseph Palmer
A non-human (e.g. an LLM)
Jacob Braunschweig
Miguel Walsh
Igor Rodnianski
Tasuki Kinjo
Junliang Shen
Hannah Larson
Justin Fields
Frederick Manners
Yuansi Chen
Tom Hutchcroft
yunqing tang
Noé Cruchet
Vincent Tassion
Tony Yu
David Budden
Ziyang Gao
Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis
Daniel Restrepo
Matteo Verni
Jiaoyang Huang
19
19
13
13
12
5
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
Causes Tina Peters' early release
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
put his name on a ship in the navy
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
Says 6 7 (or variant)
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
resume buying oil from Russia
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Dep
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
ten or more protestors killed during term
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Raise the retirement age for social security
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
add a new federal holiday in his honor
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardon himself
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Pardon p diddy
Implement a federal abortion ban
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
84
83
82
81
80
80
75
72
72
71
70
69
69
66
64
63
62
62
60
57
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
45
44
44
43
42
42
40
40
39
38
38
36
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
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17
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17
16
16
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16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
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15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈
[⚔️Frontrunner] Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Coyote - Canis latrans
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
[⚔️Underdog] Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Kirby
Pit
Captain Falcon
Luigi
Donkey Kong
Jigglypuff
Lucina
Toon Link
Mario
Link
Samus
Pikachu
Ness
Peach
Bowser
Ice Climbers
Sheik
Zelda
Dr. Mario
Pichu
Falco
Marth
Young Link
Ganondorf
Roy
Meta Knight
Zero Suit Samus
Wario
Sonic
King Dedede
R.O.B
Wolf
Villager
Mega Man
Little Mac
Greninja
Shulk
Bowser Jr.
Duck Hunt
Ryu
Cloud
Bayonetta
Inkling
Ridley
Simon Belmont
Richter
King K. Rool
Isabelle
Piranha Plant
Steve
Other
Yoshi
Fox
Mewtwo
Mr. Game & Watch
Snake
Ike
PKMN Trainer
Diddy Kong
Lucas
Olimar
Lucario
Wii Fit Trainer
Rosalina & Luma
Mii Fighter
Palutena
Pac-Man
Robin
Corrin
Incineroar
Joker
Hero
Banjo-Kazooie
Terry Bogard
Byleth
20
18
7
6
4
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1658
896
OptionProbability
Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)
Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)
Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)
Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)
Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)
Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)
Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)
Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)
Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)
Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)
Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)
Pom Klementieff (Mantis)
David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)
Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)
Chris Hemsworth (Thor)
Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)
Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)
Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)
Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)
Benedict Wong (Wong)
Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)
Vin Diesel (Groot)
Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)
Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)
Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)
Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)
Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)
Karen Gillan (Nebula)
Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)
Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)
Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)
Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)
Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)
Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)
Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)
Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)
Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)
Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)
Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)
Winston Duke (M'Baku)
Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)
Paul Bettany (Vision)
Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)
Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)
Danai Gurira (Okoye)
Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)
Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki)
Mahershala Ali (Blade)
Sean Gunn (Kraglin)
Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)
Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)
Wil Deusner (Skaar)
Gemma Chan (Sersi)
Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)
Lia McHugh (Sprite)
Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)
Barry Keoghan (Druig)
Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)
Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)
Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)
Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)
Seth Green (Howard the Duck)
Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)
Dave Bautista (Drax)
Angelina Jolie (Thena)
Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)
Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)
Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)
Emilia Clarke (G'iah)
Ralph Ineson (Galactus)
May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)
Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)
Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)
Brett Goldstein (Hercules)
Don Lee (Gilgamesh)
Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)
95
94
92
91
90
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
85
84
84
83
83
83
82
82
81
81
79
79
78
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
73
72
72
72
70
69
69
69
69
66
66
65
65
62
62
59
59
55
54
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
41
41
41
41
34
34
34
34
34
32
32
24
23
17
16
14
OptionProbability
NO
YES
227
163
OptionVotes
YES
NO
863
392
OptionVotes
NO
YES
105
95
OptionVotes
YES
NO
115
73
OptionProbability
Sam Altman
Jensen Huang
Susan Rice
Tony Xu
Ray Klein
Cory Booker
Elizabeth Holmes
66
59
50
50
50
44
43
OptionVotes
NO
YES
102
80
