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Wolf News

    Prediction markets for Wolf

    Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

    Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM
    355350174

    OptionProbability

    Hong Wang

    Other

    Jacob Tsimerman

    Jack Thorne

    John Pardon

    Aleksandr Logunov

    Yu Deng

    Sam Raskin

    Vesselin Dimitrov

    Matteo Verni

    Julian Sahasrabudhe

    Will Sawin

    Maria Colombo

    Yibo Gao

    Tom Hutchcroft

    Javier Fresan

    Maksym Radziwill

    Karim Adiprasito

    Song Sun

    Tatenda Kubalalika

    Elia Bruè

    Amol Aggarwal

    Akhil Mathew

    Ashwin Sah

    Alexander Efimov

    Simion Filip

    Jeremy Hahn

    Lisa Sauermann

    Dennis Gaitsgory

    (duplicate, will resolve no)

    Xian-Jin Li

    Mike Wolf

    Joseph Palmer

    A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

    Jacob Braunschweig

    Miguel Walsh

    Igor Rodnianski

    Tasuki Kinjo

    Junliang Shen

    Hannah Larson

    Justin Fields

    Frederick Manners

    Yuansi Chen

    yunqing tang

    Noé Cruchet

    Vincent Tassion

    Tony Yu

    David Budden

    Ziyang Gao

    Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

    Daniel Restrepo

    22

    21

    14

    13

    9

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What is Quroe's favorite animal?

    Dec 14, 11:53 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
    6549234

    OptionProbability

    Tiger - Panthera tigris

    Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus

    Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈

    Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri

    Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉

    Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris

    Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈

    [⚔️Frontrunner] Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈

    Wolverine - Gulo gulo

    Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer

    Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina

    Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus

    Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius

    Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima

    Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana

    Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus

    Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉

    Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus

    Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉

    House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus

    Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus

    Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria

    Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉

    Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉

    Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana

    Coyote - Canis latrans

    Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉

    Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉

    Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈

    Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

    Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉

    Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus

    [⚔️Underdog] Cat - Felis catus 🥉

    ❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]

    ❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]

    ❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]

    ❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]

    ❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]

    ❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]

    ❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    ❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]

    🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum

    ❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

    🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]

    🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)

    Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]

    🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]

    ❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]

    ❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]

    ❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    ❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈

    ❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]

    ❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]

    ❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]

    ❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]

    ❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]

    ❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    ❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]

    ❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]

    ❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]

    ❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]

    ❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]

    ❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]

    ❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]

    ❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]

    ❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]

    ❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]

    Other

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

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    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    0

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    0

    Super Smash Bros. Stocks

    Oct 27, 12:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    5114250

    OptionProbability

    Kirby

    Pit

    Captain Falcon

    Luigi

    Donkey Kong

    Jigglypuff

    Lucina

    Toon Link

    Mario

    Link

    Samus

    Pikachu

    Ness

    Peach

    Bowser

    Ice Climbers

    Sheik

    Zelda

    Dr. Mario

    Pichu

    Falco

    Marth

    Young Link

    Ganondorf

    Roy

    Meta Knight

    Zero Suit Samus

    Wario

    Sonic

    King Dedede

    R.O.B

    Wolf

    Villager

    Mega Man

    Little Mac

    Greninja

    Shulk

    Bowser Jr.

    Duck Hunt

    Ryu

    Cloud

    Bayonetta

    Inkling

    Ridley

    Simon Belmont

    Richter

    King K. Rool

    Isabelle

    Piranha Plant

    Steve

    Other

    Yoshi

    Fox

    Mewtwo

    Mr. Game & Watch

    Snake

    Ike

    PKMN Trainer

    Diddy Kong

    Lucas

    Olimar

    Lucario

    Wii Fit Trainer

    Rosalina & Luma

    Mii Fighter

    Palutena

    Pac-Man

    Robin

    Corrin

    Incineroar

    Joker

    Hero

    Banjo-Kazooie

    Terry Bogard

    Byleth

    20

    18

    7

    6

    4

    3

    3

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

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    1

    1

    1

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    1

    1

    1

    1

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    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

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    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

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    Is the "Wolf and Sheep" chess variant a forced win for white?

    Dec 18, 6:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    98.1%chance
    155617

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1658

    896

    Sanjuan Wolf Stock

    May 17, 5:41 AMMay 17, 8:59 PM
    10678

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    227

    163

    What will be the first animal (sub)species to be de-extincted? [Add responses]

    May 4, 12:19 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM
    19586

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Passenger Pigeon

    Dire wolf

    Dodo

    Woolly Mammoth

    Thylacine

    Aurochs

    Human

    39

    21

    17

    14

    4

    2

    2

    1

    What is the "particular line of dialog" in "A Game of Thrones" that is important in the last scene of the series?

    Mar 9, 9:42 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    8575

    OptionProbability

    Other

    "There are still direwolves beyond the Wall. We hear them on our rangings." (Jon I)

    "We should start back." (Prologue)

    "I just want to stand on top of the Wall and piss off the edge of the world." (Tyrion I)

    "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives." (Arya II)

    "I think he is a giant come among us, here at the end of the world." (Tyrion III)

    "And what will you be wanting, this time of night?” “A last look.” (Tyrion III)

    "All dwarfs may be bastards, yet not all bastards need be dwarfs." (Jon I)

    "Love is the bane of honor, the death of duty." (Jon VIII)

    "All dwarves are bastards in their father's eyes." (Jon I)

    "I hope the boy does wake. I would be most interested to hear what he might have to say." (Tyrion I)

    33

    14

    10

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    Will the Wolf (Canis lupus) become extinct in the current century?

    Feb 25, 7:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    13.61%chance
    14557

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    863

    392

    What will be the first star system visited by humans beyond the Sun?

    Aug 13, 11:57 AMAug 13, 11:57 AM
    9443

    OptionProbability

    Alpha Centauri A & B

    Proxima Centauri

    Other

    Ross 128

    Barnard’s Star

    Wolf 359

    TRAPPIST-1

    34

    27

    10

    8

    7

    7

    7

    Wolf Tivy can make Yudkowsky stronger

    Nov 26, 12:53 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    52.55%chance
    345

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    105

    95

    Will the himalayan/tibetan wolf be recognized as a seprate species by the IUCN by 2040?

    Jan 15, 7:11 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    34.47%chance
    225

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    115

    73

    Will Algonquin wolf/eastern timber wolf be accepted as a seperate species from the gray wolf by the iucn by 2030

    Dec 10, 4:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    57.59%chance
    212

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    102

    80

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