U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated his trade war by threatening to impose higher tariffs on more than a dozen countries. This move was announced on Monday, with Trump setting a new deadline in August to reach trade agreements. However, he indicated some flexibility regarding this deadline. Market analysts, including those from UBS Asset Management, suggest that even if all proposed tariffs are implemented, the effective tariff rate would only increase by about 2%, with a base case scenario settling near 15%. UBS also views Trump's 30% tariff threat on the European Union as a negotiating tactic rather than a finalized policy, anticipating either a trade agreement or an extension of the August deadline. Trump has a history of shifting his tariff stance, a pattern that has earned him the nickname "TACO Trump." Meanwhile, major countries including Japan have already experienced increased tariff rates amid these developments.
Trump has repeatedly shifted his stance on tariffs since his “Liberation Day” announcement—earning him the nickname “TACO Trump.” (Photo: Tasos Katopodis via Getty Images) https://t.co/GqJCuXk0xS https://t.co/oy9UPpGQ8N
UBS: TRUMP LIKELY TO "TACO" ON TARIFFS, GOLD A HEDGE FOR POLICY RISK UBS sees Trump’s 30% EU tariff threat as a tactic, not a done deal—expecting a trade agreement or deadline extension before Aug 1. Base case: U.S. effective tariff rate settles near 15%, letting the S&P 500
Markets can continue to digest tariff noise, according to @UBS Asset Management's Evan Brown: "Even if the president puts all of these [tariffs] on, it's just an increase of 2% in the effective tariff rate." https://t.co/g71pNiehVu