Recent market developments indicate a weakening correlation between the U.S. dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury yields, a relationship that has traditionally been strong. This shift has raised concerns among investors and central bankers about the future role of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency. The head of Italy's central bank expressed worry over the depreciation of long-term U.S. government bonds and the dollar, highlighting potential implications for the international monetary system. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has recently risen alongside the S&P 500, suggesting that foreign investors may be converting their local currencies into dollars to capitalize on the stock market rally. However, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policymaking and the Federal Reserve's independence are contributing to volatility in both the greenback and Treasury bonds. Market analysts note that the decreasing correlation between the dollar and Treasury yields resembles patterns previously observed in emerging markets.
Dollar’s correlation with Treasury yields breaks down https://t.co/25BPjORCWE via @ft
Dollar’s correlation with Treasury yields breaks down @FT https://t.co/eLQM0SV0JO https://t.co/YHtHz1FGWQ
Correlação do dólar com os rendimentos dos Treasuries se desfaz https://t.co/f3yxvdiu22