Jun 20, 08:45 PM

Bloomberg Analysts Lift Solana and XRP Spot ETF Approval Odds to 95%

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF specialists Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have sharply increased their probability estimates for a wave of U.S. spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, saying constructive talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission point to imminent approvals. The pair now assign a 95% likelihood that the SEC will clear spot funds tracking Litecoin, Solana and XRP, and a 90% likelihood for products tied to Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera Hashgraph and Avalanche. By contrast, they see a 60% chance for Sui-linked ETFs, mainly because applications were filed later. Balchunas and Seyffart said the regulator’s recent request for issuers to amend Solana ETF filings—clarifying in-kind redemptions and whether the funds may offer staking rewards—signals active, solutions-oriented engagement. They added that the SEC appears to be treating several of the underlying tokens as commodities, which would reduce securities-law hurdles. While the analysts expect green lights within months, they cautioned that final approvals and launches still depend on the timing of the SEC’s review cycle and issuers’ ability to meet disclosure requirements.