
S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs as July, Historically Best Month, Sees $114.3B Vol Control Buy and Gains Under Trump 2.0
Market analysts have highlighted the potential for a strong summer rally in US stocks, with July historically being the best month in post-election years and the second best over the past decade. The S&P 500 is currently about 0.85% below its all-time highs, suggesting a possible new peak for 2025, consistent with historical trends where stocks rarely peak early in the year. A gain of over 2% in January has been a reliable indicator of a better-than-average full-year performance. Since the start of President Donald Trump's second term, stocks have shown gains despite a historically poor start to the year. Historical data indicates that even if stocks decline by 15% year-to-date, they have previously rebounded to double-digit gains by year-end, a pattern expected to continue in 2025. Additionally, vol control funds are projected to increase exposure by $114.3 billion in the coming month, marking the largest one-month buy projection in Nomura's model since 2004. Many stocks are currently near or above their monthly highs, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the market in the near term.
Sources
- .
Monthly is better and a lot of stocks are near its highs or above it. https://t.co/XwNiFffQVS
- Markets & Mayhem
Underallocated vol control funds may go heavy over the next month, with an expectation that they buy $114.3B worth of exposure. "This is the largest estimated 1m BUY projection in our model’s history since 2004". - Nomura July is also a historically strong month for stocks. https://t.co/ni7XzH5GZJ
- Ryan Detrick, CMT
We noted this on April 8, but stocks can be down 15% YTD and come back to positive. In fact, they don't stop there, as the three times it happened they moved to up double digits each time. I don't think this year will be any different and double digit gains in '25 are likely. https://t.co/UlMS4DQ6lA
Additional media





