The Dollar just surpassed S&P 500 as the outperforming post-election trade. That's something I've been banging on about and markets are now embracing this view. The intuition is that tariffs are Dollar bullish but will weigh on US equities, so S&P 500 upside is limited here... https://t.co/cwn3Zj3fs3
Markets initially thought the election is primarily bullish for US equities, but the election is really an FX trade. The Dollar is now rallying hard as markets realize this. Take the Yen, where people before the election were targeting $/JPY 120, while they now target 180... https://t.co/FSqjiUws4p
The S&P 500 had a massive bounce right after the election (bigger than in 2016), but last week's election is much more obviously Dollar bullish than positive for US stocks. Markets are now catching up to that. The Dollar (lhs) is catching up to S&P 500 (rhs), which is falling... https://t.co/l2Cna0QBWK
Following the recent U.S. presidential election, traders are increasingly betting on a selloff in the Treasury market, anticipating that policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump will lead to higher inflation and sustained interest rates. The U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly, rising 6% since early October, as market participants expect Trump's tariff policies to bolster the dollar further while negatively impacting global currencies such as the euro, yuan, and yen. Analysts note that the current market dynamics resemble those following Trump's surprise victory in 2016, with expectations that tariffs will drive the dollar higher, potentially weighing on U.S. equities like the S&P 500. The dollar's rise is seen as a response to anticipated domestic economic growth, deregulation, and lower tax rates, alongside inflationary pressures from tariffs. The S&P 500 has experienced volatility post-election, with some analysts cautioning that the stock index may face limitations in upside potential as the dollar continues to rally.