Poll Finds Iowa’s Ernst in Dead Heat With Democratic Rivals

A new Public Policy Polling survey indicates that Republican Sen. Joni Ernst faces a highly competitive re-election contest, trailing or barely leading four prospective Democratic challengers in Iowa. In initial ballot tests conducted 18-19 August among 572 registered voters, Ernst polls at 43% against state Sen. Zach Wahls’s 42%, and at 45% versus Nathan Sage, Jackie Norris and Josh Turek, who register 41-42%. All match-ups fall within the poll’s ±4.1-percentage-point margin of error. The poll—commissioned by the Wahls campaign—also shows Ernst’s job approval slipping to 37%, with 50% disapproval, a −13-point net rating that mirrors her weakening position in earlier PPP surveys. Former President Donald Trump’s standing in the state is similarly negative at 46% favorable to 50% unfavorable, underscoring a challenging environment for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.