UK consumer price growth accelerated to 3.8% in July from 3.6% the previous month, according to Office for National Statistics figures published Wednesday. The result exceeded market expectations of 3.7% and marked the highest annual reading since January 2024. Prices rose 0.1% on the month, while core inflation—excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco—also printed at 3.8%. Services inflation picked up to 5.0% and food costs climbed 4.9%. The ONS said the upside surprise was driven largely by sharply higher airfares, hotel rates and staff-canteen charges during the school-holiday period. The hotter data sparked a sell-off in government debt, pushing gilt yields to their highest level in almost three months, and prompted traders to pare back expectations for further monetary easing. Interest-rate futures now assign roughly a 42% chance of another Bank of England cut by December, down from about 50% before the release. The figures land just a week after the Bank of England trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in a close 5-4 vote, and they complicate the central bank’s stated intention to continue a “gradual and careful” easing cycle. Officials have projected headline inflation will crest near 4% in September before retreating toward the 2% target in 2026, but Wednesday’s print suggests price pressures remain stubborn. Businesses are already passing on cost increases: trade groups report that 79% of hospitality firms have raised prices amid higher wages, energy bills and other budget pressures—factors likely to keep consumer prices elevated in the near term.
Eurozone consumer price inflation held steady at 2.0% Y/Y in July 2025, unchanged from June but slightly above market expectations of 1.9% https://t.co/oI6HPGzm0O
In June 2024 inflation was bang on target: 2%. Since then it has almost doubled, now at 3.8%.
Our market update in the wake of UK CPI: https://t.co/SBlDngywpH